York on Day 1 proved typically thought provoking with later developers generally getting the better of those with strong form in the first half of the season. We predicted the poor performance of Lambourn, where Arabian Force put himself in the picture for the St Leger , our Ante Post bet on Scandinavia at 5/1 now looks even better.
Our policy of not betting ew was just about proved right as Arabian Force was touched off for 2nd place by a sh hd at 10/1 in the 7 runner field.
As expected Ombudsman proved that the Eclipse defeat was just down to a poor tactical ride and as predicted by us on Day 1 of the season, the Gosden team has returned to the top table.
Then of course we got the job done with Santorini Star 5/1 early doors then 6/1 BoG winning at 100/30. Profit at York secured !!
One horse i expect to hold up the early season form on Thursday is Bullet Point.
Its been a thrill a minute this season at Somerville Lodge in the big handicaps starting with Godwinson in the Lincoln and continuing with the likes of Archivist in the John Smiths Cup, More Thunder in the Wokingham and Bunbury Cup and Bullet Point in the Hunt Cup and the Ascot International.
In every case victory and defeat has been determined only in the final strides of the race.
Bullet Point has been touched off in the final strides in both the Hunt Cup and the Ascot International. However he can run off the same mark here as he did at Ascot and with only one 3yo standing their ground this looks a far weaker contest than his previous two runs.
The icing on the cake is the draw in stall 3 which will mean Marquand can get the stand side rail and dictate the fractions. Had he been drawn in this position in both Ascot races i feel sure he would have collected at least one of those prizes,
The bookmakers won’t be generous, but the 3/1 currently available is about right and i expect with the flood of money from the big players that attach themselves to the Haggas runners, he will go off probably around 9/4.
Given that perfect draw and the relatively weak exposed opposition, its his race to lose.
Recommended Bet York 3.00 Thursday 2pt win Bullet Point
3/1 2pt Already Advised
The Haggas team will be pleased with the performances of the yard on Day 1 and with the limited declarations for the Galtres Stakes at 4.10 which is another contest that lacks quality in depth. Aeolian is one of two horses t owned by the King and Queen in this listed race.
The other is the Gosden trained favourite Rainbows Edge. However she is just one of two from only 10 declared that is rated 100+ and along with the other,Charlottes Web (103) looks vulnerable to an improver.
Aeolian is one of those and has attracted support in the early markets into 6/1, however I have been bitten badly by backing in these fillies and mares listed races and will stick to my feeling to leave then well alone for the rest of the season. Don’t surprised if Aeolian goes close.
York 4.10 Thursday No Bet Recommended.
The third runner from Somerville Lodge on Thursday, also owned by the King and Queen is Purple Rainbow who intriguingly having been campaigned at 10f and 1m is down to 7f in the 5.20 and has been entered in 6f races this month.
She has been really disappointing and will need to show huge improvement from her last two runs. Backing her would be highly speculative and I will stick to my guns and ignore this type of ew bet from the Haggas yard this week.
York 5.20 Thursday No Bet Recommended
There are no entries at the other meetings on Thursday.
The rest of the York card features some very well fancied favourites who look a bit short although difficult to oppose.
The Lowther Stakes at 1.50 is surely going the way of Royal Fixation and i will be surprised if she goes off as big as 6/4 that was available on Wednesday. Her form looks around 10lb higher than anything else in this race and she should be odds on.
Selection 1.50 York Royal Fixation
Next up is the Half A Million Goffs 2yo Sales race and a long time friend and successful punter has his biggest bets of the season in this type of race and he will be all in on Tadej who is not only the form pick but has the plumb draw in Stall 1
There are of course upsets but he makes profits year after year betting in around 7 or 8 races like this each season, so I will wish him luck and watch with interest.
Selection 2.25 York Tadej
The Yorkshire Oaks is a non event except to say that both the 2025 Epsom Derby and the 2025 Epsom Oaks form is well below standard but surely Minnie Hawk can beat Estrange on ground that doesn’t suit the O’Meara filly.
No Bet Recommended 3.35 York
Finally the Nursery at 4.45 is made even more difficult by the fact that the fancied runners are all drawn high. I have no idea what might come out on top.
No Bet Recommended 4.45 York
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