Its really job done at York after our only bet on the card Thursday Bullet Point advised at 3/1 followed up the best bet on Wednesday Santorini Star 5/1 – 10/3.
Its also nice that we got the other runners right that failed to trouble the judge.
We have three bets for York on Friday and Saturday but not as strong as the two that have already won. However the form we are in, there is every chance we have not finished yet. I will start with the bet on Saturday.
Before heading off to Australia for a big race in November Bullet Point is likely to run again on Saturday in the Strensall Stakes the opener at 13.50. The surprise defection of Fox Legacy has opened this race up and 6/1 is just too big. If he is not right he won’t run so we will get our money back. Definitely well worth a 1pt Bet at 6/1.
Recommended Bet Saturday 1pt win Bullet Point 1.50 York 6/1.
Somerville Lodge has a busy Friday with seven runners going to post on continued fast ground.
I will kick off with the race by race analysis of York and then move onto the other meetings.
The York card opens at 1.50 with a 12f all age handicap which was the target for The Reverend -had the rain arrived. It looks a dour race with mostly well tested older horses. Safest option looks to be Mount Atlas ridden by Oisin Murphy with scope to improve into listed or Group 3 handicaps.
No Bet Recommended
The defection of Illinois has left the Lonsdale Cup off at 2.25 at the mercy of Trawlerman.
No Bet Recommended
Due off at 3.00 the Gimcrack looks a poor renewal following the withdrawal of Wise Approach which has left Do or Do Not with a gilt edge chance to gain a deserved maiden victory.
No Bet Recommended
Thankfully the Nunthorpe at 3.35 comes to the rescue of a poor Day 3 card at the Knavesmire.
The 2yo’s seem to have attracted all the attention but Arizona Blaze looks a sprinter very much going places and despite the generous weight for age allowance the 3yo will probably have too much speed and strength to be caught. He has brilliant natural speed , ideally suited to 5f at York on fast ground.
Selection Arizona Blaze.
The first Haggas runner at York on Friday is Wonder Star who takes aim at the Class 2 0-105 fillies handicap due off at 4.10.
Only 13 have been declared in what is in effect now a 0-90 handicap and Wonder Star from her mark of 84 looks the best handicapped and the filly with most scope for improvement.
Her run last time out when second behind Ashariba at Goodwood confirmed she is an improving filly and with further progress assured she should be well positioned throughout to take this valuable prize.
Gosden’s Cape Flora is flattered by her Leicester win when she was allowed a soft lead and I expect the race to be dominated by Wonder Star and the Balding trained Zgharta who will go off favourite.
She is a slow starter, however she has Oisin Murphy booked for the first time and will benefit for the step up to 10f. At the prices she is worth a saver as I cannot make a case for any of the other 11 runners coming close to the front two in the market.
Recommended Bet 1.5pt win Wonder Star 9/2 0.5pt saver Zgharta 10/3
The Convival Maiden at 4.45 is always a race to watch with a view to the future and that is what i will be doing.
No Bet Recommended
The final race on Friday at 5.20 is a 1m 3yo handicap won last year by the Haggas trained Treasure Time.
Those at the head of the weights seem to have their fair chunk of weight following wins or near misses in similar contests and whilst i know the yard don’t think Sea Force is especially well handicapped he is only 1lb higher for two runs in races which were not ran in his favour.
His profile is almost identical to Treasure Time last year. Racing off a mark just 2lb higher he was like Treasure Time a slightly unlucky loser at Goodwood. He shows the same tenacity in his races and I expect him to be fighting for victory all the way to the line. He is well worth a small interest at 10/1 or bigger. Marquand has agreed to get down to his lowest weight of 8-8 to take the ride and he looks sure to run very well.
Recommended Bet 1pt win Sea Force 5.20 York Friday 10/1 or bigger BOG Friday AM
Other Runners.
Elmonjed steps up into listed company at Newmarket in the Hopeful Stakes at 1.20. He has it all to do based on ratings. However, his Goodwood run last time can be ignored and the set up of this race is perfect for him.
He has only had 12 starts and has scope to improve into a Stakes graded sprinter. However he is drawn in stall 2 and i feel sure the rapidly improving Dubai Treasure in stall 11 will set the pace. On balance i have decided to let him run unbacked but will not be surprised if he outruns his odds.
No Bet Recommended
In the 3.10 at Newmarket Raneen contests the 6F handicap back down to her winning mark and also to 6f having been tried over 5f and 7f on her last two races. She is fitted with a first time hood, which is usually a positive with runners from the yard. However, Angel Shared was very impressive over course and distance last time out and looks to be a fast improving sprinter who will have too much in hand for Raneen to overcome.
No Bet Recommended.
Up to Hamilton which unfortunately also has Good to Firm ground causing the card to be reduced to small fields. In the 5.35 Seren Star bids to follow up her Chepstow win, when she benefitted from rivals that ran many pounds below their best.
Warren Fentiman has been booked and in a 4 runner field she will be able to track the pace set by Pomme Pomme and record a second victory. I am fairly certain she will be odds on – so NO BET RECOMMENDED
Finally Camtank takes in the 6 runner fillies handicap the 6.40 at Goodwood.
She was disappointing at Nottingham when set to give a penalty to her rivals following an impressive win at Lingfield. She drifted in the betting that day from odds on to 2/1 despite there being no real move for others in the race. I have a feeling her mark of 76 is over stating her ability and I will see how she performs on Friday with the future in mind.
No Bet Recommended.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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