Thursday thankfully features the final week of the Racing League an event that regularly provides bookmakers with a profit boost and pays for their Christmas expenses!
Much more interesting fare in Wales where a 5,000 Novice Stakes at Ffos Las at the end of August is hardly the place you would expect to find Group horses but that is the case on Thursday where the list of previous winners of this race include Group 2 winner Outbox and the Group 1 winner Trueshan.
I expect Klassleader to develop into a horse that can follow in their footsteps and contest Group races probably next season
With rain forecast and some useful entries at the 5 day stage i was hopeful we might get an odds against price for the 3yo having just his third start.
However, the serious opposition has not taken up their entries. Unfortunately, he will be odds on but is worth watching – he has a big future and is a horse to follow.
Ffos Las 3.40 Thursday Klassleader. Odds on No Recommended Bet
Haggas also sends Art Lover to Ffos Las in the 2yo maiden at 2.10. Unlike the 3yo race there is some very stiff opponents declared including High Approval, Hypnotise ( Colin Keane is jocked up) and Gouken.
Its one of those 2yo races where it is very difficult to gauge the level of improvement still to come from these 4 horses. Although behind a potential top notcher when second behind Hilitany at Windsor, the overall balance of that form is probably the weakest of the 3 other runners mentioned.
Haggas though is – 5 winners from just 7– 2yo runners at the track and he would not be coming here unless Art Lover was considered to have a good chance of winning.
If the rain arrives as forecast he is well drawn in stall 11 against the stand rail but has been slowly away in both his races and with Gouken in stall 10 the the 2/1 market leader – another slow start could be a problem.
Nearly all owner Richard Green’s horses with Haggas have had three runs and then won in nurseries. On balance I will watch not invest – but it is a close call although Art Lover’s early market price of only 5/2 makes it easier not to play.
No Bet Recommended
Tom Marquand heads to Newbury for three rides for Somerville Lodge including the unraced 2yo Caraway in the 5.55. As always a watching brief is advised.
No Bet Recommended.
30 minutes earlier the full sister to Dr Zemph Back to Black reappears in the Fillies maiden at 5.20.
Despite all the stats that clearly show it being unwise to back Haggas horses first time out she attracted support from 13/2 into 7/2. Largely because of her breeding and good looks. After missing the break she was last of nine throughout the race, showing very little.
That wouldn’t put me off as that is common with a lot of debutants from the yard who then make rapid improvement on their second outing.
However Newbury Fillies maidens are full of promising types and the Balding filly Stormy Music is particularly well bred. A race to watch.
No Bet Recommended.
The enigmatic Sir William finally got his act together at Windsor in a race that he was entitled to win and is up 4lb and in grade in the 10f handicap that closes the card at 7.30.
It is possible the win could have given him the confidence boost he needed and on his home work this Class 4 handicap off a mark of 76 is well within his capabilities.
Marquand will be prominent from stall 1 and will get a great tow into the race from Star of Dubai who will get across from stall 9 and make the pace.
Everything is set up for Sir William after the Windsor run to prove he is the horse that his homework has indicated. At around the 1f pole when asked to go and win his race we will find out ?
I am prepared to back him to make that step forward – but not to any big bet level. He has been put in at 11/8 which is far too short but I do think the gelding will drift to around 2/1 – 5/2 -if it does i will have a 1pt bet.
Recommended Bet 1pt win Sir William 7.30 Newbury BoG if 2/1 or bigger
Early Bets for Saturday
With the forecast rain from Wednesday to Saturday now pretty much certain there is an Ante Post double well worth an early wager. The odds reflect the chance that either horse won’t be declared but given the forecast and the make up of the races , it looks like both will head to post at odds far less than currently offered.
More detail to follow from Thursday but I have staked the following Ante Post with Bet 365.
2pt win Hamish 5/2 2.40 Chester
2pt win Crown of Oaks 3/1 1.30 Beverley
1pt win Double
Lots of runners on Saturday to end another winning month which is already assured of making it 6 out of 6.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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