The Haggas yard put out a strong team on Saturday. With Marquand on the five runners at Sandown, Fallon off to Chester for 3 rides , Callum Rodriguez is on the best chance of all in the opener at Beverley, Joanna Mason gets the ride on First Instinct in the Bullet and Ryan Moore rides Godwinson in the Irish Cambridgeshire at the Curragh
With rain forecast across the country on Saturday it s a day to be cautious – a lot of the stables runners are dependent on the rain arriving and also running in races where there is a good deal subjectivity required to establish their winning chances.
The market on the runners is sure to fluctuate. Most will be put in short, the most strongly fancied will still be supported but a majority will drift to a better price later in the day. As was the case with Muhaajim on Wednesday they can then be supported late on just before the off. This is because of the Haggas win to runners data. There are many punters who back horses from the yard blindly based on these favourable stats that suggest the chances of them winning are higher than the odds available.
We have already lost 3pts on our Ante Post bet on Hamish as the forecast rain at Chester did not materialise – but we should have that covered with our 2pt bet on Crown of Oaks at 3/1 who goes to Beverley in the 1.30. The East Yorkshire track has also missed the rain but there is some in the forecast and Crown of Oaks will be fine on good ground.
Drawn in Stall 1 is possibly not ideal, although better than a high number, but Callum Rodriguez rides Beverley really well and should get a position off the rail behind the pace and off a mark of 85 the class of Crown of Oaks should do the rest. This should be another Haggas handicap gamble that goes off at a very short price but gets the job done.
Callum Rodriguez has a 25% win strike rate at the track and is 5 from 12 riding for Somerville Lodge. 3yo’s dominate the winners list and Crown of Oaks is 1 of only 3 enetered.
Owner Tony Bloom’s horses are in incredible form with 7 winners from 13 runners in July and August and in total this season his 31 runners sent out of Somerville Lodge have provided 11 winners.
Haggas has sent only 4 runners in the last 10 years to contest this race with 1 winner 2 runners up and a 3rd place. His winner Illaraab ran off a rating of 84 and progressed to win 3 more races in that season and finished the following season winning a Group 3 off a mark of 108.
Crown of Oaks has the potential to replicate that level of progression.
Everthing is in place and he will be our 3rd 2+2 (4pt) Bet this season
Recommended Bet Already advised 2pt win Crown of Oaks 3/1 Ante Post + 2pt win 2/1 overnight.
In the Beverley Bullet at 2.05 First Instinct is well drawn in stall 4 but will need the favourite Regional to run well below form to collect. This is good placing by Haggas as she has a good chance of getting some more black type but the presense of Regional dropped to this level in order to get a confidence boosting victory makes securing another listed win extremely difficult.
First Instinct No Bet Recommended
At Sandown
First to post is Headmaster in the 1.50. The 3yo was the subject of an incredible gamble at Goodwood last time out. Available at 28/1 he was sent off 85/40 favourite and he was beat within 50yds after being bumped coming out of the stalls.
He ran poorly even allowing for that and finished 16 of 16.
I cannot remember a gamble on a horse from the yard that surprised me more it came from completely out of left field. The horse has potential we advised a small ew bet at Goodwood when it was 16/1, thinking that it would go off around 10/1.
The fact they go straight into another ultra competitive all age handicap at Sandown does suggest the yard retains a great deal of faith in the gelding who is bred to be a Group 1 horse but runs here off 87.
As was the case at York when the decision not to back big price horses to small ew stakes paid off. I am going to repeat the policy on Saturday.
However , it is impossible to ignore the extent of the Goodwood gamble and running in this weaker contest, it is silly to ignore the 8/1 available and I will have a small win bet. Marquand should get on the pace from stall 8 and we will find out just how good he is. The forecast rain will help his chances.
Recommended Bet 0.5pt win Headmaster 1.50 Sandown 8/1
In the 2.25 we see the long awaited re-appearence of Alobayyah. She is another that has been delayed by the firm ground conditions but before the start of the season , Tom Marquand nominated her as one of his five to follow.
After such a break the run is sure to bring her on. It is possible she could be a superstar and will blow these away but the likelihood is she has future Autumn targets in mind , for which this will set her up.
Alobayyah No Recommended Bet
In the 3.00 I will wait to see how much rain has fallen at the track and if it is soft ground Castle Cove has a major chance of making up for his Goodwood disappointment. If it stays good – he may be pulled out.On good ground he wont be quick enough but on slow ground he will beat most of these. The danger is Dangerman who will be favourite and is likely to be very well backed.
Castle Cove No Bet Recommended 3.00 Sandown- unless ground is Soft then 1pt win
in the 2yo Novice at 4.10 Proposal will have his supporters. However this features the debut of the 3.7 million pound Goldophin colt Act of Kindness and it is a race to watch
Proposal No Bet Recommended
In the 5.20 Another Abbot is likely to be a non runner if the rain arrives and he has a tough task dropped back to 5f and with a 7lb rise for his Brighton win. I do expect him to keep on improving but the ease in the ground wont suit him.
No Bet Recommended
Onto Chester
The North Wales border is the one place you would expect rain to fall but it didn’t and Hamish has been withdrawn from the listed race at 2.40, which on soft ground would have been a straight forward task for him.
Fallon has three rides starting with Concert in the 2.10. If she had been rated 85 after her Yarmouth win that would have been harsh and she has to beat Entailed who ran to that mark in a hot Newbury sales race. PJ Macdonald will grab the favoured far side rail and will take all the beating.
I have a bit of a soft spot for Kinswoman who stays at 5f in the 4.25 following her long awaited first win at Windsor when she was dropped to this trip for the first time.
She is drawn in Stall 1 but will be headed in the run to the bend by I’m Next in stall 1 and Our Planet in stall 6 and Solid Bond in 8. This has all the makings of a pace burn up and Kinswoman who did not get put up for her win could pick them off in the home straight.
She is bred to be better than a 75 rated filly and the fact that she has stayed in training after getting that win and assuring her value in the paddocks suggests the yard think there is more to come
Recommended Bet 1pt win Kinswomen 4.25 Chester.
Showering returns to the scene of his course and distance win in the 5.00 .
He is well drawn in stall 5 but this a tougher race and everything fell right for him on his win. The chances at this track of him getting the breaks at the right time on a second occasion are not good and off a 2lb higher mark its too risky to bet on.
Showering 5.00 Chester No Bet Recommended
Finally Godwinson is ridden by Ryan Moore in the Irish Cambridgeshire a race not won by a UK raider this century.
The booking of Moore will greatly reduce the odds available. However i don’t see this as any great Haggas plan, more a result of the continued fast ground in the UK and he looked a horse that may struggle to win off a rating of 100+ in his last race behind Fox Legacy at Goodwood. He is up to 104 which even with Moore booked maybe too high in the weights.
Godwinson 4.37 Curragh No Bet Recommended.
Saturday Recommended Bets:
2pt win Ante Post 3/1 Crown of Oaks + 2pt win overnight 2/1 1.30 Beverley
0.50pt win Headmaster 8/1 1.50 Sandown
1pt win Kinswoman 4.20 Chester
Possible bet if Soft Ground at Sandown
1pt win Castle Cove 3.00 Sandown
That will be it for August another good month and we move onto September – Friday Bet details to follow.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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