Soft Sandown Saturday Hag Tag Update

Genuine Soft Ground at Sandown increases the chances of the Haggas runners but as usual the Market has hugely overreacted.

1.50 Headmaster – 8/1 – 10/3

The gamble at Goodwood was indeed based on the feeling that the horse is a group horse in a handicap. That explains the view that the run can be written off. The ground based on his breeding will be very much in his favour as his dam won a Group 1 on heavy.

On Friday horses that made the running did very well. Although we only have a small bet at 8/1 it looks good now and because he still has to reproduce his home work on the track. I am happy to stick.

Already Advised 0.5pt win – No Change

2.25 Alobayyah 12/1 – 5/1

The ground will also be in favour for this highly rated daughter of Ghaiyyath. However to win a Group 3 after a year off the track following a setback will be a huge performance that will announce her as a genuine top class Group 1 filly. However, she is bred to be a 12f furlong and even on soft ground the mile could be on the sharp side for her

I really hope she wins – but especially now at 5/1 i am still not backing her making her a winning comeback. However i will not be anyway surprised if she won and would not be laying her.

Confirmed No Bet Recommended.

3.00 Castle Cove 13/2 to 4/1

The 1pt win goes ahead now that the essential soft ground for this horse has been confirmed.

The money has come for the favourite the London Gold Cup winner Saddadd who is into 11/4. However, the Varian yard has not been firing especially with their better class runners and there are holes in the Newbury form. Dangerman has been weak in the market which suggests they have doubts about the ground and I am more than happy with the bet on Castle Cove for whom soft ground is essential . He was unlucky at Goodwood as his race was run before the heavy rain and Sandown will suit him very well

Confirmed 1pt win Castle Cove

Proposal 4.10 Sandown

Has a great benefit of experience over her rivals but there is nothing in her pedigree to suggest soft ground will be helpful to her.

Confirmed No Bet

Another Abbot 5.20 Sandown. 5/2

Dropped in trip to 5f and on ground that he is not proved on the 5/2 early price is just too short.

Hopefully he runs well without being able to produce his best because of the ground – on good ground I am certain he will win more races this season as his revised mark of 83 does not reflect his ability.

Confirmed No Recommended Bet