It’s been another season where we have turned a profit every month and a very decent ROI. Although the period from the last race on the Friday of Royal Ascot until the end of the Goodwood festival was a roller coaster that I hope is not repeated.
It began when our bet of the meeting at Royal Ascot Archivist was balloted out as first reserve of the Golden Gates and couldn’t run even though only 13 of the permitted 14 went to post. At least we got stakes refunded !!
The next day was incredible our 4 bets all finishing second 3 of them beaten by 50/1 28/1 and 25/1 outsiders. That set the scene for the next few weeks.
The Newmarket July meeting was, like Ascot profitable, but we got incredibly lucky with More Thunder in the Bunbury Cup followed by probably one of the worse rides William Buick has given on Notable Speech in the July Cup.
Goodwood was also profitable thanks to Merchant and Scandinavia but we gave some back on a nightmare Saturday where the Haggas team sent six horses to the Sussex track, we backed 4 that got beat and the two we didn’t WON !
That led to a more considered approach for August especially with a greater focus on the 3pt and 4pt bets
We advised only 5 in total 4 Won the only one from outside the Haggas yard Hornsea Bay 7/2 – 2/1 got beat running to bad to be true. All were heavily backed more than halfing in price form their opening show. The highlight being More Thunder 6/4 from 5/1 winning the Hungerford Stakes
The Total No of Bets in August was down to 34 from 48 in July and the ROI was over 55%
The month by month ROI is as follows. :
March 8 Bets 52% ROI
April 23 Bets 63% ROI
May 40 Bets 44% ROI
June 49 Bets 27% ROI
July 48 Bets 16% ROI
August 34 Bets 56.50% ROI
Focusing on the bigger bets – In total this season there have now been:
41 X 3pt and 4pt Bets Recommended
21 Winners
ROI = 72%
All selections and stakes posted in advance daily at refahagtag.com
Looking Ahead
August ended with the frustration of very poor weather forecasting costing us what i am sure would have been two Ante Post Bet winners with Hamish and Crown of Oaks. However on what was a tricky weekend with the changeable weather i was happy with the two winners ,Mamma Maria i think everyone was on FPP and Kinswoman who landed a gamble from 9/4 – 11/10.
They were 5 gambles on Haggas horses on Saturday with Kinswoman being the only one to get a return. i felt obliged to throw a 0.5pt bet on Headmaster at 8/1 (returned 3/1) and 1.00pt on Castle Cove at 13/2(returned 7/2) – but also accounting for the 5pt Ante Post losses we broke even over the two days.
I am sure they will put Headmaster away for next season , to let him strengthen up with the prospect of fulfilling his potential as a 4yo. As for Castle Cove he has the look of a horse to catch first time out, if he stays in training as a 5yo.
The gambles on Concert at Chester and especially Godwinson at the Curragh were hard to put down to anything except the bookies fear of Haggas.
Although much will depend on the weather I am anticipating a record ROI in September.
We have secured 5/1 on Scandinavia for the St Leger now odds on. Although with Wayne Lordan suspended the ride is up for grabs with Ryan Moore out injured. I suspect Sean Levey will get the chance to repeat his win last year on Jan Brughel aboard Scandinavia for Ballydoyle.
My next bet is an Ante Post advice on Almeraq currently 6/1 for his next intended race the Ayr Gold Cup.
If he goes to post it will mean the ground will be on the soft side but also that he will go off the shortest priced favourite of the race since 2020 when Nahaarr also trained by Haggas won at 7/2. If he runs Almeraq will be shorter than 3/1.
As with all Ante Post bets the weather can be a killer as with Hamish and Crown of Oaks but 6/1 is worth an investment, especially as you know when the ground comes right you can get your Ante Post losses back if the horse is a non runner- as will be the case with Hamish and Crown of Oaks. The money is just a short term loan to the bookmakers.
Recommended Bet 1pt win Almeraq Ayr Gold Cup 6/1 W Hills Bet Victor
Chrysalis Consortium 
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