Hag Tag Autumn at Southwell Not Plan A

At this time of year there is a consideration to be made with 3yo Fillies running in class 4 and lower handicaps.

There are two angles:

1. They are improving and have a genuine opportunity to continue to progress and win more races with a view to extending their racing career as 4yo’s

2. They have won a race or two, secured a decent paddock value and are continuing to race in the hope they can add another victory.

The likes of Kinswoman and Silver Chamber fit into the first category, but it looks to me that fillies like Mahra’s Love, especially running on the all weather fit into the latter.

In a majority of cases after August they have one or two more runs then are either retired to the paddocks or sold.

The top weight Crown’s Lady,Donna Brooke and Librate all look to have more scope for improvement

The yards record since 2010 with 3yo’s in Handicaps on the Tapeta surfaces Newcastle, Wolverhampton and Southwell in September through to the end of the year is 18 winners from 99 runners. The favourites account for 14 winners from 40 which is fair enough but still shows a level stakes loss.

For those not starting favourite the record is 4 from 59 which makes each one around a 15/1 chance and huge level stakes losses

You will understand on stats alone why Mahra’s Love the only Haggas runner on Tuesday is not a recommended bet. She is also a horse I left alone because oh her unusual head carriage, when she won at York and having missed the wedding don’t want to go to the funeral especially at odds of 7/4 although i think that will drift.

Tuesday Mahra’s Love 7.00 Southwell No Bet Recommended