It is difficult to remember a weekend when Somerville Lodge were sending so many improving horses to post on the same day. The following runners would normally be considered investment opportunities:
Ascot
2.10 Crown Of Oaks
3.15 Tenability
3.50 Abloom
4.25 Binhareer
Haydock
2.25 Valiancy
3.00 The Reverend
3.35 Sky Majesty
Kempton
2.35 Magic Box
4.20 Molten Sea
There are 6 more in addition to those declared to run plus another 7 declared on Sunday at York plus Dubai Honour in Germany including:
4.30 Almeraq
3.30 Seren Star
5.30 Earthwatch
We have taken a cautious approach since Monday but we will up the stakes on Saturday and Sunday
The caution proved correct on Thursday and Friday with just 1pt bets advised on two fillies heavily backed but ultimately very disappointing. There were warning signs hence the low stakes, although both were fully expected to win by my contacts, who lost heavily.
The bookmakers are pricing up all runners from the Haggas yard very short and it requires patience not to get sucked in when the prices offer poor value.
In past years this weekend has been very good for the yard with a strike rate of around 30% with horses sent off 1,2,3 in the market.
Given the wide range of options and generally very poor early prices available it has been difficult to gauge the good bets from those that might win but represent no value.
I will start with Ascot….
In the 2.10 Crown of Oaks is 4/6 compared to the 3/1 we got last week in a weaker race, where had the rain arrived he would have been one of the bets of the year.
This week he has tougher opponents and ground that may now be too soft but he is just about the best handicapped horse in the yard and he should win.
There looks to be no pace but he is a class horse and that should see him get home if he wins i expect his next race will be the Cambridgeshire.But 4/6 No thank you !!
No Recommended Bet Crown of Oaks 2.10 Ascot
The runner that merits a 2pt Bet is Binhareer who heads for the 6f handicap at 4.25 which is a southern trial of the Ayr Gold Cup.
Its a tough race with no end of horses arriving in top form and with the ability to win this race. However, i think Binhareer could be ahead of all them given his rate of progression. He ran brilliantly at Newmarket on ground that was too fast to be go down on the line to another improving colt in Addison Grey
If he wins here it is likely he will get into the Ayr Gold Cup and head there with a real chance. Usually high numbers are favoured on the straight course at Ascot and his draw of 11 could be better but he should be able to track the pace and be produced with a running run inside the final furlong.
Stable mate Carbine Harvester has a comeback run and will be better for the outing. The opening 7/2 is short enough and I recommend taking BoG in the morning.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Binhareer 4.25 Ascot.
The other runners at Ascot are Tenability in the 3.15 and Abloom in the 3.50. It is rare to back a Haggas horse because of a big price but Tenability a dual course and distance winner, who the stable believe will improve for soft ground is too big a price at 9/2 with BET 365 who are offering 3 places in the 7 runner field.
I cannot see how he can be out of the first 3 and the favourite Push the Limit whilst an understandable favourite is too short at 13/8. Haggas has won this race 3 years out of the last 4 and Tenability can further enhance that great record.
Recommended Bet 1pt ew Tenability 3.15 Ascot 9/2 Available 3 places
Abloom is up in grade in the 3.50 and unproven on soft ground and this looks like a shot at seeing if she has scope to try for black type in listed company.The 3/1 opening price is far to short
No Recommended Bet
Maltese Cross makes his debut in the 1.40 and a watching brief is advised
Staying in Greater London and onto the AW at Kempton
Candleford has very little chance in the opener at 1.35 with Kalpana getting ready for the Arc and will go odd long odds on.
The Nursery at 2.35 has cut up to just 5 runners and is likely to be dictated by Oisin Murphy on Rubys Angel. Had this been more of a contest with a predictable pace angle I would be interested in backing Magic Box especially with Colin Keane booked but on such a busy day I will let her run.
No Bet Recommended
In the 4.20 Molten Sea is also the mount of Keane. She fits the profile of a filly that has gone backwards on her last two runs. However, i think that was more due to being held up given poor rides instead of making the running and given a chance to run to form.
Hopefully Keane will get the instruction to make all from an excellent draw in stall 5 and I believe she is more than able to win off this mark in this grade and i don’t want to let her run unbacked.
Recommended Bet 0.5pt win Molten Sea 4.20 Kempton.
North to Haydock , where the ground may not be anywhere near as soft as predicted and will not be as advantageous to the Haggas runners as anticipated.
Certainly The Reverend in the 3.00 and Sky Majesty in the Betfair Sprint at 3.35 need more cut than the good ground now predicted . Dramatic Star will run better than at Ascot and on good ground maybe the better of the Haggas runners at a good price of 10/1 but its speculative and i will watch the race without investing.
No Bets Recommended
That leaves Valiancy in the 2.25 who was ridden with a great deal of confidence on his last two outings ( possibly too much) and failed to pick up as expected. It’s no surprise cheek pieces are fitted and Safia Osborne was booked early as the gelding only has 8.5 to carry and he could easily improve past these rivals.
I just doubt his willingness to put it all in when required and at only 4/1 its not worth the risk until he shows a better attitude to winning.
No Bet recommended
Summary
2pt win Binhareer 4.25 Ascot
1pt ew Tenability 3.15 Ascot
0.50pt win Molten Sea 4.20 Kempton.
Sunday
The card at York offers opportunities on a par with any over the last fortnight. With the going likely to be just on the soft side of good, ground conditions will be perfect
In the 4.30 Almeraq goes up to listed class on the basis of getting stakes race experience before heading into Group 1 races.
The colt has the potential to be one of the leading sprinters in the country and should take this race in his stride. The inclusion of Lethal Levi in the race will ensure a fast and furious pace which is ideal for the son of Dark Angel closely related to the 6f Group 1 winner Fairyland. His draw in 6 just inside Lethal Levi in 8 is perfect.
A price of anything around 2/1 is good value.
Recommended Bet 3pt win Almeraq 4.30 York.
In the 5.00 Seren Star is a filly on the up. Given a great ride by Warren Fentiman to win a small race at Hamiliton she was put up 4lb but it could easily have been doubled as she could have won by 5 or 6 lengths.
Off 83 she remains well treated and although up in grade she is improving really well with her racing. Drawn wide enough in 9 but Fallon should be able to get her tucked in early and then make his challenge down the centre of the course.
Rhapsody also runs for the yard but she has been out of form and has to take a big step forward to get involved.
Recommended Bet 1pt win Seren Star 5.00 York Take BoG Sunday morning
The 4.00 at York sees two horses we have followed in Noble Horizon and Hornsea Bay reappear. However also declared is the Ed Bethell trained Danger Bay who was so impressive when landing a gamble for us at Hamiliton.
He is a horse to follow and will likely be seen in the Cambridgeshire but he must be backed until beaten – he could easily develop into a group horse.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Danger Bay 4.00 York 3/1 or bigger
In the opener for 2yo’s at 2.30 Crown Office bids to go one better following his debut runner up performance at Newmarket.
Ryan Moore rode him that day and is the only jockey i have seen revert to the whip on an unraced horse trained at Somerville Lodge. Will he come on for that as a result? I doubt it and this is a tougher race – i will watch rather than take a financial view.
No Bet Recommended
In the 5.30 Earthwatch was put in as favourite at 7/2 but is already on the drift out to 9/2 . He got put but 11lb for his win at Sandown when he was greatly advantaged by running on the far rail on fresh ground that was raced on for the first time this season.
He looks poorly handicapped now on a mark of 81 and although the booking of Warren Fentimen takes the eye on a busy Sunday i will watch without investing.
No Bet Recommended
In Germany the warrior that is Dubai Honour takes in the Grosser Preis von Baden (Group 1) at 2.25
He has never quite been good enough in this class, against the likes of Rebels Romance, but as always will give it his best shot.
No Bet Recommended
Sunday Bets
3pt win Almeraq 4.30 York 2/1
2pt win Danger Bay 4.00 York 7/2
1pt win Seren Star 5.00 York BOG
Chrysalis Consortium 
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