The ground at Haydock Park looks likely to be good to soft, although with showers focused it could change too soft by post time.
The Somerville Lodge team sends 3 horses to Lancashire starting with Gaspacho in the 3.00. This is his racecourse debut so as always a watching brief only, even though he is only 13/8 in the early markets.
No Bet Recommended
On the other hand Division in the 4.02 has the benefit of a run and gets 7lb weight allowance from the Kevin Ryan Thirsk winner Alaminos who beat another of todays rivals Napolean 3L on debut.
The 4th home that day Bushwacker ran really well to be beaten only a head by the Haggas trained Hardy’s Hero on Monday. Its difficult in these Novice Stakes races to give the penalty away and i expect Division to win this race and be the first leg of a Wathnan double on the day with Pearla at Longchamp. He has a Group 1 entry but that is fairly standard for the ownership group and not too much should be read into it.
Haggas won this race 2 years ago with Elmonjed. Wathnan won it last year with Defence Minister and both those are the only two winners of this race to defy a penalty.
The price of 6/5 for Division is a bit too short given the impressive win by Alaminos at Thirsk and i will watch the race with the future in mind.
No Bet Recommended
The handicap at 4.37 features a field of 7 fillies who are seemingly going nowhere fast. It includes Consecrated who won on debut at Newbury in a race that hasn’t worked out well.
She was then sent off a heavily backed favourite to win a listed race at the York and ran Ok but only finishing 4th having been outpaced at a crucial stage of the race.
She was also a heavily backed favourite at Newbury last time out when she ran abysmally. The winner that day was Blue Bolt who is now a Group 3 class filly rated 102.
Ceiren Fallon rides her for the first time since her debut and it was quoted after she won that he thought she was ‘a certainty’. Which would be highly unusual for a Somerville Lodge debutant.
The form of the opposition is paper thin, especially the Novice race at Newmarket where the favourite Hot Flame was beaten by Consecrated’s stable mate Aeolion. That race could not have worked out more poorly.
10f and ground on the soft side coming off a break and a mark of 92 look to be her perfect conditions. If she is going to fulfil her potential she should win on Thursday.
There must be a doubt though after her last run. I have paid the price of supporting fillies to return to form that have gone backwards on two consecutive runs. Term of Endearment, Purple Rainbow, Chorus and Molten Sea all examples where the expectation was they could get back to their best, and they all failed.
No Recommended Bet
Raneen is out again in the 6.20 at Lingfield. They have tried a range of surfaces and trips to get another win out of the 3yo and now revert to a very sharp five furlongs on the AW at Lingfield. Harry Burns takes off 3lb and he does well on these sprinters and he may get the best out of her from a favourable stall 2 draw. This is a poor race for a Class 3 and is in reality a Class 4 in all but name.
The 15/2 available is tempting, but she has not reproduced her best RPR of 90 achieved over 6f at Doncaster and although with Burns allowance she is 5lb better off than that day, 5f on the sand at Lingfield could not be more different conditions and there just isn’t quite enough in her make up to warrant an investment
No Bet Recommended
Summary
Just one bet on Thursday at the start of a very busy 4 days. Pearla already advised in the 6.10 at Longchamp the 1pt stake at SP only because it’s her first overseas venture.
It is a day when the yard may well send out a few short priced winners but the race conditions and the horses current form and or lack of experience, without doubt indicate poor value and as such are outside of our key milestones required for investment.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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