There is nothing like missing a high profile winner to raise doubt in the mind of a punter and the win of Santorini Star in the Park Hill stakes backed into 7/2 from 7/1 is the perfect example. Especially after having a good bet on her market rival and backing her throughout the season.
It does of course happen and the horse we backed Danielle under performed and with the benefit of hindsight isn’t one to trust.
The market move for Santorini Star was I believe more down to the Haggas X factor, than professional support.
Another winner we missed was Rhapsody at York on Sunday backed from 14/1 into 9/2 when what looked like the stables first string Seren Star drifted from 3/1 out to 6/1.
This result appeared to be against our process, as I cannot recall it happening in recent years. However, history almost repeated itself in the Doncaster Nursery on Friday when Magic Stone 10/1 out ran the Haggas second favourite Art Lover 5/1 only to be foiled by a gamble on a Goldophin 2yo Sword Maker .
However, the mistake was simply to accept the jockey bookings as a fait accompli and in both cases there were very solid reasons in the form book that indicated the original markets based on jockey bookings were incorrect.
Of course, the most important part of our process is form analyses and quite simply given the amount of runners from Somerville Lodge on the first weekend of September I didn’t spend enough time on the race Rhapsody went on to win.
The lesson was learned on Friday, when Purple Rainbow was sent to Sandown with a very similar profile to Rhapsody and was backed into 2/1 from an original 9/1. This time the process worked and screamed out No Bet.
The Haggas yard is now 0-27 with 3yo’s running at Sandown in handicaps during September and previous reports suggested Soft Ground was against the 3yo. The support continued but it was completely no surprise to see her drop away and finish almost tailed off.
Saturday saw a similar picture when only the stable stalwart Hamish winning from the six runners sent to post. The 8yo was odds on until drifting late on to 11/8 partly because Maureen Haggas publicly announced how worried she was about the ground not being soft enough and that the race was a prep for bigger targets ahead.
She stated how much they were looking forward to a big Autumn with the gelding and our patience will pay off. The fact he won emphasised that potential.
There was support for Regalian at Doncaster but anyone reading our daily investment advice would not have even considered backing the 3yo. The risks on backing Al Aasy at 5/4 where clear and he decided that it wasn’t a day to make too much effort!
The highlight was of course the win of our only bet on the day Scandinavia with a 2pt investment advised at 5/1 Ante Post and giving Tom Marquand a second St Leger winner and a 1st Group 1 winner of the season.
Crown Of Oaks on Sunday was a case where the trends and the visual performance came together.
The Haggas record in handicaps at the Curragh this decade was 1 from only 3 runners
However, none were three year olds and both Naqeeb and Godwinson who were both well beaten, were exposed 4yo’s running from their highest handicap mark in the 100’s.
The winner Lattam was unexposed and improving running from a mark of just 87. All of the previous three were 4yo’s but Lattam was only having his 5th race.
Lattam who was winning first time out as a 4yo was a clear plan where as Crown Of Oaks was running in order to get a win to ensure the long term plan of winning the Cambridgeshire was possible.
He was running to get another penalty in order to get into the Cambridgeshire
The quick turnaround from his impressive Ascot win 8 days previously, looked to be the only danger and that proved to be the case as he ran flat unable to show the turn of foot that was so impressive at Ascot, finishing third.
Maybe I should take Sundays off ! The loss of Crown of Oaks following Almeraq, Danger Bay and Scoville who all failed for a variety of reasons on recent Sundays.
The four were heavily backed from 5/2 -10/11, 3/1 to 6/4 7/2 to 2/1 and 9/4 to 8/11. There is only value if they win !! But of course plenty of others have won when similarly well backed the Sunday factor is nothing more than a coincidence.
A busy week ahead with no less than 57 entries. Generally it looks like the ground will be just on the soft side of good at most courses, although Thirsk Monday is due to get significant rainfall on Sunday ahead of Monday’s racing.
Sandown will be a meeting to avoid on Wednesday with significant further rain due on already very soft ground. The 3 day meeting at Yarmouth which is of significant interest on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday looks set for Good ground.
Three horses head to Thirsk on Monday. First up in the 3.20 is Poetry of Time who being by Ulyssess is sure to need time – as always one to watch on debut.
No Bet Recommended
The two fillies that head for handicaps at 4.20 and 4.50 are of interest.
Our Salisbury and Ffos Las winner Mamma Maria looks to have an excellent chance in the 7f handicap at 4.20. Raised just 4lb for those performances she is well drawn in stall 10 over the 7f course where high numbers are favoured with cut in the ground.
What really appeals to me is the very strong pace forecast and large field , which for the first time should allow the filly to be ridden to best effect. She will appreciate the cut in the ground and the drop back to 7F.
Marquand can get plenty of cover and then produce her to outspeed and outclass the Class 5 field and then progress to Class 4. However there is significant rain forecast and i will check out how soft it is before a decision on investing and advise accordingly/
Recommended Bet Mamma Maria 4.20 Thirsk TBC
30 minutes later in the 1m handicap at 4.50 Days of Grace has a less obvious task from a mark just 1lb lower than Mamma Maria.
Somerville Lodge have only sent 6 horses to contest races at the track in September, October and November this decade. The have been 2 winners,1 second, 2 third and 1 unplaced runner.
Coincidentally the only horse to be unplaced Sea Tsarina was also owned by the same owner/breeders as Days of Grace Sunderland Holdings Inc.
However from a high of 21 winners from 15 horses trained at Somerville Lodge for the operation in 2022, that was reduced to 7 winners from 10 horses in 2023 , down to 4 winners from just 4 horses in 2024.
This year Days of Grace is the only horse in training and whilst the yard will be keen to get her a win it is hard to see how that rating of 69 has been handed to her. The form of her last run, where she admittedly failed to stay could not have worked out any worse.
No Bet Recommended
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