The period post the Doncaster St Leger meeting is a time for extra caution in view of uncertain weather forecasting, slow ground conditions and horses ready for a break. It is essential to stick to our process.
WE WILL MISS MORE WINNERS AS A RESULT but also avoid plenty of short priced losers. To give you an example of the strike rate for Somerville Lodge over this period.
In both 2023 and 2024 it fell to around 14% in the last two weeks of September and October, compared to between 25%-30% in August and early September. This year September is running at 27% but expect that to reduce over the next 14 days.
The big festivals are a case in point Ayr holds up at around 27% but Newbury drops to 15% and Newmarket 10%
At Newmarket in October the win percentage is only just over 7% Newbury 18% and Doncaster is under 15%.
Onto Thursday and the start of the Ayr Gold Cup meeting and both Aeolion in the 3.15 and Golden Handshake in the 5.20 are two horses that are put in at very short prices (6/4 and 11/10) but after they both ran really badly at York need to bounce back.
Of the two I would prefer Golden Handshake in the finale at 5.20 but at those odds i don’t need to get involved.
No Bet Recommended.
Over at Pontefract the Haggas record at the track in September since 2015 reads:
u/p W, W, W , u/p, u/p 2,2,2 W, W. With two of the 3 U/P unfancied outsiders.
Both Silver Chamber in the 2.52 and National Park in the 4.23 will be at the front of the market probably less than 6/4 and again i will let them run unbacked.
No Bet Recommended.
Forever Penywern will be odds on to repeat his win at Goodwood in the seller at Chelmsford. The 4 runner race is due off at 5.25. He will also be odds on.
No Bet Recommended
In summary 5 runners on Thursday with a chance that all five could win, at the short prices some would say should win.
However, over the years at this time of the year it has always proved more profitable to be highly selective and stick to our general rule ‘of less than 7/4 no bet recommended.’
Last September 9 horses from the yard were sent off at less than 7/4. Only 3 won resulting in a loss of 4.5 pts.
In September 2023 20 horses were sent off at less than 7/4 only 6 won resulting in a loss of 8.0pts.
Back on Friday with a 3pt bet.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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