Our policy of avoiding the short priced Haggas favourites this week has proved very wise indeed with seven horses out of eight being sent off at 7/4 or less beaten, the only winner was a 4/6 favourite. As we pointed out on the trends this was very predictable at this time of the year and has nothing to do with the yards runners being out of form, simply priced up too short for what they have achieved. It is unfortunately a similar story on Friday based on the early markets. All three possible bets should be around 3/1 but none is available at bigger than 2/1.
Although Hardy’s Hero landed the gamble for us at Carlisle. He scrambled home and as a result has been given what looks a very workable opening mark of 82.
The form of his two wins is questionable especially the Haydock victory on first outing.
On his Haydock win he looks as though the step up to 7F will suit but i greatly fear the Hannon runner French Spirit who looks well handicapped and hails from a yard that has won this race 5 times in the last 10 years.
Fallon was quoted as saying after the Carlisle win that although he thought Hardy’s Hero would be suited to the slow ground, he didn’t really handle it.
That adds another question mark about the value of the form and is enough given the opening price of 15/8 for me not to bet.
No Bet Recommended.
Also in a Nursery at Ayr in the 1.28 is Magic Stone. She has been given a break after having two runs in 5 days winning one and second in the other.
The form has worked out really well and although 7lb higher she looked a filly on the up and freshened up by the break can continue on the her progress.
The Haggas record at Ayr in Nursery’s is 2 from 3 runners this century. Unfortunately i think she should be an 3/1 chance but has been put in at 2/1 and as we have found out over the last 48 hours its just not worth taking the risks at these greatly deflated prices.
No Recommended Bet
Back to Newbury and Florida Suite makes his debut in the 2.20. You know the rest.
No Bet Recommended
Finally Orionis looks to get another win after two very good runs behind fillies that look to be ready for listed class. Her mark as gone up 3lb as a result but if Favourite Memory, Chilli Queen and Crepe Suzette they would all be very short priced to win this
Orionis will be better suited to easier ground in this 12f handicap and in this weaker race is worth a bet at 3/1 or better. Unfortunately 2/1 is the best on offer and that is too short.
No Recommended Bet
On Saturday there are 4 horses priced up at odds that offer decent value and i will post the Saturday Blog with the betting recommendations later on Thursday evening.
HAG TAG Diary of a Season
Chrysalis Consortium 
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