All of our investment advices are based on logic, an assessment of risk and anticipated improvement.
There are days when you see logic go over the hill with its arse on fire. Newbury on Saturday was a case in point.
The win of First Instinct beating Montassib on his seasonal debut was predictable although unlikely and owed as much to Montassib walking though the first 25 meters of the race as it did to her willingness to knuckle down and beat better rated rivals.
The huge gamble on Castle Cove from 7/1 into 9/4 came from out of left field after Tom Marquand chose to ride stable mate Dramatic Star our Bet who drifted from 4/1 to 7/1.
Then in the finale Eternal Force a typical Haggas 3yo improver was sent out to improve the stables record of nearly 40% on 3yo’s going off 1st or 2nd favourite in Newbury handicaps in September and October.
Despite Marquand publicly stating the horses excellent chance and how much he would enjoy the cut in the ground, the gelding inexplicably drifted from 7/2 to 10/1. Yet Won in exactly the style expected, completing a 2500/1 Treble for Tom Marquand and landing our 3pt bet.
As our biggest bet of the day we will take it , sometimes in racing logic just goes out of the window, we move nicely ahead on the month.
5 runners go to post on Monday.
Palace Artois makes her debut in the Leicester 2.43. She is beautifully bred and will attract plenty of interest. But remember the 2 odds on debutants that were beaten last week and stick to the process and don’t back Haggas trained horses first time on the track.
No Bet Recommended.
The same rule applies to debutants Ekliemm in the 3.53 and Kissmehoneyhoney in the 4.30.
No Bet Recommended
Two fillies complete the line up Concert in the Hamilton Nursery at 2.58 and Pergola heads for the fillies handicap at the 8.00pm at Wolverhampton
Concert heads North of the Border for the Class 4, 5f Nursery, dropping in grade and in trip just 11 days after disappointing at Doncaster over six and a half furlongs in a hot Class 2 Nursery won impressively by the Karl Burke trained Half Sovereign.
The Somerville Lodge record this decade with horses running in Nurseries with a turnaround time of 12 days or less is 6-16. With the record 5 from 7 when sent 1 or 2 in the market.
Concert has to be respected especially as she will be only the second 2yo runner at the track for Haggas in 25 years. The plot thickens though with the inclusion of the Tony Bloom owned Kark Burke trained Jungle Monarch.
The form of this 2yo was given a big boost by the running of the geldings Windsor conqueror Flying Comet in the Mill Reef Stakes on Saturday.
He is a full brother to the 92 rated handicapper Sergeant Wilko who won as a 2yo with cut in the ground. He was heavily supported on his first two outings but is one of the very few Burke 2yo’s yet to win.
On his last two runs the drop to this stiff 5f should suit but he has been disappointing and with the Kevin Ryan trained Desert Jungle also strongly fancied in the six runner field, although the data for Concert tempts me, I will sit and watch without investment.
At Wolverhampton in the 8.00 Pergola looks for her second win stepped up in trip to 1m4f after getting caught close home in a 4 runner Windsor handicap over slightly shorter when Marquand was allowed to set steady fractions.
The winner that day Naasma followed up under a 2lb higher mark to give a boost to the form. Pergola’s maiden form has a very strong look to it, and the one blot on her record was at Sandown, on Good to Soft ground following heavy rain which is a valid excuse for any horse.
Horses that have progressed from her maidens include Bospherous Rose now rated 85 Favourite Memory 87 Silent Love 90 Cajole 98.
She will get a strong pace here and is well drawn in Stall 5. Clearly top rated her last run will be good enough to win here and I think she will be suited to getting a lead. She is bred to be a Group filly and every win will add considerably to her paddock value.
The Haggas record with 3yo handicappers at the track is only 10% and includes a defeat for Bullet Point on his handicap debut off a mark of 75 !!
It is perhaps significant that owners Highclere Thoroughbreds ran both Concert and Pergola on the same day. Her close relatives all having winning form on the AW and she is worth a small interest as she may well improve for the surface.
Recommended Bet 1pt Win Pergola 8.00 Wolverhampton
Chrysalis Consortium 
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