With the forecast of rain on Friday through to Saturday the process of determining investment opportunities involves high risk.
Coincidentally, three of the four runners on Friday have additional high risk factors added to the mix that even if the ground conditions remain unchanged make recommending bets complicated.
At Ascot there are 3 runners. The horse with the most straight forward credentials is Wujjood in the 5.15 . She seemed to run as well as she could at Salisbury in a listed race when she was beaten 5l – the form has worked out very well. She is dropped in grade and follows the route of two other Haggas trained winners in this contest dropping back to a 1m after runs at 10f.
The Somerville Lodge record in the race over the past 10 years is:
2nd 4/1 – 4th 11/4 fav- 5th 12/1 – No Runner – Won 2/1 fav – No Runner – No Runner- Won 11/4fav – 5th 12/1 – 7th 5/1
Wujjood is officially best in at the weights and could easily be the 5th runner from the yard to go off favourite in a race where most of the field is fully exposed. Can she be the 3rd to win the Class 3 race? it is highly possible as the form of her last two runs gives her an outstanding chance. Although Crack on Boys on his Sandown form with Indola and Man of La Mancha will contest the spot for favourtism.
Four horses that finished in front of Wujjood on her last two runs are now rated. 102, 97, 101 and 101.
There is a strong pace from those drawn in the centre stalls and she is ideally drawn in five and is likely to track the pace before her stamina enables her to take control of the race.
The concern will be the ground as she has no form on soft. At present it looks like only small amounts during the day on Friday but we have been caught out adversely with dodgy weather forecasts on more than one occasion recently, so i will wait and see Friday morning before advising bets or not
In the Noel Murless Listed Stakes over 1m6f at 4.05 Arabian Force appears to have only Push the Limit to beat but at 5/4 there is sufficient doubt about the trip not to break our 7/4 rule.
Haggas ruled out the St Leger for Arabian Force because he was unsure about the trip and although this listed race is very different from a Group 1, combined with his poor run over this course at the Royal meeting, it would be unwise to take short odds.
NO Bet Recommended
Winter Flower contests the Novice Stakes at 3.30 but the form of her surprise win over the odds on Majaz was let down by the same horse who again traded at odds on but was beaten by an even bigger surprise Haggas first time out winner Kissmehoneyhoney
This is a tough race and carrying a penalty against some potentially very useful colts looks a tall order.
No Bet Recommended.
The biggest puzzle of all is faced by the running of Mission Possible in the 1m6f fillies handicap that closes the Southwell card at 8.15.
On her Kempton form with Little Dorrit now rated 96, off a mark of 67 she is probably the best handicapped horse in the yard. Last time out on her first run in a handicap at Haydock in a race for apprentices, she was backed as though defeat was out of the question. However, despite her young riders promise, Alexandra Egan couldn’t handle her attics both before and during the race and a line can be put through her run.
The stronger handling of Ceiren Fallon is sure to make a difference and if she runs to her Kempton form she will win easily. She will probably be short but the Haggas stats at Southwell with 3yo’s running in handicaps this century is very positive 8 from 19. Increasing to a remarkable 8 from 12 if sent off 1 or 2 in the market, which i am pretty sure Mission Possible will be. Will it be a Recovery or Mission Impossible I am going to have a 1pt interest to find out providing she doesn’t drift badly in the markets. If she doesn’t i will back her on the way to post.
1pt Recommended Bet Mission Possible Place Bet 10 minutes before off only if less than 9/4 and odds against.
Ante Post Saturday Longchamp
Santorini Star has provided as with several highs this season and also one of the biggest lows when I opposed her at York. She will run at Longchamp on Saturday in the Group 1 Prix de Royalieu whatever the going and in a race where the genuine Group 1 fillies entered have big question marks over their stamina she is worth an ew bet to continue her rise up the ranks.
They basically have nothing to lose running here and Marquand will ride her exactly as he did at York and make this a real stamina test. Soft ground will increase the impact of that asset and although its really difficult to assess what her SP will be at Pari Mutual odds it is probable that its bigger than the 6/1 Ante Post odds quoted on Wednesday. That though is OK with the possibility that others at the head of the market could be non runners.
Recommend 0.5pt ew 6/1 Ante Post and will stake another 0.50pt ew at SP on Saturday – Santorini Star 4.00pm Longchamp Saturday.
Anticipation is mounting at Somerville Lodge where the forecast Soft Ground will give Sky Majesty, providing she gets luck with draw, a great chance in the Prix de l’Abbaye at 1.50 and shouldn’t hamper More Thunder in the Prix de le Foret at 4.25.
More to follow when the draw is known on Friday. Currently Sky Majesty is 14/1 and More Thunder 5/2. I can’t see More Thunder being much shorter but if she gets a good draw Sky Majesty could be half that price.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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