Unseasonable dry weather has led to Good to Firm going at Salisbury and the sprint handicap due off at 4.20 provides Another Abbot with a good chance to confirm he is a sprinter to follow as he rises up the ranks.
We have been with the 3yo thoughout the season and there is stil plenty of scope for improvement, despite the 8lb rise for his Brighton win in August.
He has been entered regularly but the yard has waited for the return to fast ground which clarifies the opinion that he is still well handicapped.
The 2nd, 3rd and 5th from the Brighton race who were firmly put in their place, have all won off higher marks and what is even more encouraging is the make up of the race. Another Abbot ideally likes to aim at a strong pace and relishes an uphill finish. He will get both on Thursday.
Safari Dream from Stall 7 will blaze the trail and Another Abbot in stall 6, who has plenty of speed, will be able to lay up just behind before delivering his turn of foot to put the race to bed in the style of his Brighton win.
The all important stats back up the form analyses. In the last 10 seasons Haggas has sent 18 3yo’s to contest handicaps at the track. Of those 18, 15 have been sent off 1,2,3 in the market with 8 winning ( 9 if you include Mamma Mia who was disqualified ) with 5 finishing runner up.
The danger is probably the completely unexposed Rock Iguana drawn in stall 5 but he has pulled far to hard in his races and will need to up his game on his first venture into handicap company, on my ratings in has between 7-10lb of improvement to find with Another Abbot. The three horses in training with Haggas, owned by Mr T Bridge, have won 6 races this season and Another Abbot can make it 7.
All the elements are in place for a 3pt Bet to start October off with a bang.
Recommended Bet 3pt win Another Abbot 4.20 Salisbury. I have taken the 11/4 with Bet 365 if there is bigger BoG in the morning with other firms i can cash out and take the bigger price but it is the price i predicted
In the 4.50 the booking of Tom Marquand on the previously trained Haggas colt Approval now with Owen Burrows catches the eye. The 4yo stayed in the ownership of Highclere Thoroughbreds but after running poorly this season a change of scenery was thought necessary to get him back on track.
After winning a Class 2 Goodwood Festival handicap at 3 off a mark of 88 there were high hopes that he may progress further as a 4yo. He proved to be really difficult to restrain and ran poorly in a couple of Class 2 and a couple of Class 3 contests. On each occasion he was well backed.
The last run for Haggas offered a glimmer of hope as although pulling hard he lasted out until the final furlong. However, the decision was made to give him a wind operation and a transfer from Newmarket to Lambourn.
His first run for Burrows offered another ray of light, wearing a hood for the first time, settling better he stayed on at one pace, rather than dropping away, suggesting the wind op was successful. The ground was good to soft which would not have suited him and he gets the fast ground he needs on Thursday.
The handicapper has dropped him to a mark of 83 from a high of 92. Marquand has only ridden 7 times for Burrows ( 2 winners) . Shoemark, and Murphy both ride at the meeting but the booking of Marquand suggests that Thursday is all or nothing for the 4yo, who i suspect will be heading to the sales in October.
There was just enough in his last run to convince me he has retained sufficient abilityto win off his revised mark of 83 with the fast ground in his favour.
As always the stats offer further encouragement Burrows record is 4 from 9 in Handicaps at the track, which if you discount the class 5 and 6 handicaps ( poor horses) becomes 4 from 7.
Approval can give Burrows a good start to the month after a very frustrating end to September. The ownership group could do with a lift with fast ground forecast and the form of the trials, as, but for injury to Merchant they would be going to Paris on Sunday with a real chance of lifting the Arc de Triomphe.
Recommended Bet 1pt win Approval 4.50 Salisbury 4/1 is also what i thought was about right same thinking as with Another Abbot will apply
Returning to the Somerville Lodge team on Thursday its a busy day with 6 runners across 3 venues.
First to run at Salisbury is the promising 2yo Poetry of Time who has the plumb draw in Stall 1 in the Novice Stakes at 2.10.
However, there are two good reasons not to get involved. Firstly the value of his debut at Thirsk although eye catching has yet to be backed up in the formbook. The race was won by a 33/1 Tim Easterby trained newcomer after the short priced favourite was withdrawn after getting upset in the stalls.
Secondly the Haggas record with 2yo’s in Novices and Maidens at Salisbury is not great. In the last 10 seasons he has sent out 1 2yo winner from 14 running in September and October. This includes 7 from 7 beaten favourites 2 of which were odds on.
No Bet Recommended especially at around Evs i would rather lay than back.
2 head up to Newcastle starting with Magic Box in the Nursery at 6.00pm. I made a complete hash of rating the Nursery at Newmarket on Saturday and paid the price with a 2pt Loss on Gwen John. Basically i failed to correctly assess two likely improvers.
This could well be run at a slow pace which turns races at the track into a lottery. There is a potential improver among the 5 rivals – the Grant Tuer trained Advertise could be well handicapped off a mark of 79 and is value at 8/1
The Haggas record in Nurseries at the track is 4 from 17 which is OK but with the double doubt about the slow pace and the potential improver, I will let Magic Box run without support. She is a really tough filly that i would not be laying and will not be surprised if she wins, she will be around 7/4.
No Bet Recommended
Harry Burns takes the ride on Jewelry in the Class 4 handicap at 7.00pm off a reduced mark of 86 down to 83 with her riders 3lb allowance.
Jewelry is an example of a Haggas 2yo that wins first time out on debut, immediately gets touted as a potential Group horse, only to find that she beat nothing and then struggles to win off a mark based on the over reaction to the debut win.
After that win she was sent off 3/1 favourite for the 2024 Gp 3 Dick Poole Stakes but flopped badly and wasn’t seen out again until two runs in August this year.
First race back she was put in at long odds on but was a big drifter on the AW at Kempton and never looked likely to win. She was disappointing on soft ground at Ascot when asked to try and make all, both races over 7f.
The yard clearly feel she didn’t got the trip and off a reduced mark of 86 drops back to 6f in a Class4 handicap.
She won’t have to make the running as there is plenty of pace from Novamay in stall 5 and Crystal Dagger in 7. Jewelry has the plumb stand side draw in 8.
However she was allowed to go off at 22/1 last time out and she will be around 5/1-6/1 minimum on Thursday evening, I fear we may have already seen the best of her.
No Recommended Bet
Ceiren Fallon heads to Chelmsford for a couple of rides. Firstly on the 2yo Wild Dahlia in the opener at 4.30 who appeared to go backwards from her debut on her next race at Chester. This is a very trappy, typical Chelmsford 2yo Novice Stakes,. The Haggas record in 2yo Novice Stakes and Maidens at the track after the 1st September is ok with 14 winners from 44 runners sent off in the first 3 in the market. However the winning favourites record is just 8 from 23 and shows a 9pt loss.
Those stats and the doubt over her 2nd run make it an easy decision to watch not bet.
No Bet Recommended
Finally, the desperate battle to get Suhub a win continues upped in trip in the 10f handicap at 8.15. Once again lady luck is not on her side with a wide draw in 11.
Arguably her best run was on her only previous run on the AW at Kempton when she was beaten just over 2L by the now 86 rated Urban Glimpse.
Off a reduced mark of 70 she holds every chance here despite the draw, but there is a big doubt about the trip and she has been so disappointing to date that it is far to risky to get involved. I will watch and hope she can win and increase her significant value in the paddocks.
NO Bet Recommended.
There are many entries on Friday, Saturday and Sunday however with significant rainfall predicted it is going to be a case of waiting to see conditions before betting. I will complete the usual write ups the night before but will wait until the day of the race to confirm bets and stakes. Thanks for following.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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