Plans for betting on the racing in the UK can go ahead with the forecast wet weather arriving on Friday afternoon and lasting through to midnight. There is little forecast for Saturday.
Ground conditions are absolutely vital to almost every race – the forecast for Paris suggests the rain will not continue much after midday Saturday so conditions won’t be heavy, probably just on the soft side of good.
Since Thursday ‘the racing gods’ have turned against the Haggas team, delivering them a series of hammer blows. Fortunately, we have only backed one loser from the yard albeit a 3pt Bet when Another Abbot threw his toys out of the pram and, in effect, refused to race at Salisbury.
Also on Thursday Suhub, Jewelry, and Magic Box performed dismally. The markets reacted on Friday Winter Flower 6/1 – 20/1 Arabian Force drifting from Evs to 7/2, Wujjood from 3/1 to 13/2. We correctly, although it wasn’t difficult, advised no Bets on all 6.
It suggests that something is wrong at the yard but i very much doubt it as this sought of run of results is not uncommon particularly at the latter stages of the campaign
On Saturday Somerville Lodge has a team of 9 going to post including Santorini Star at Longchamp who looks the least likely to be impacted by changing ground conditions.
Although this market was confused by the double declaration of two of the front four in the market Bedtime Story and Survie who have also been entered on Sunday. Santorini Star has a wide draw in 10 but shouldn’t be impacted as she is sure to get across as and when Marquand thinks is the right time and place to dictate the race.
The only other pace angle is possible Island Hopping drawn widest of all and she may act as a pace maker for Bedtime Story.
Santorini Star is unworried by ground conditions I cannot see her being out of the frame.
Recommended Bet: Already Advised Santorini Star 4.00 Longchamp 0.5pt ew 6/1 plus 0.5pt ew SP
I will go through the others meeting by meeting on Saturday followed by Sunday
Starting with the 5 at Ascot:
The 1.15 is a devilish difficult race and given the uncertainty of a possible draw bias , it has about as much appeal as a Virtual Race when it comes to a bet.
Nardra represents Somerville Lodge and is very short at 8/1 in the early markets. She fits the profile of recent runners Headmaster and Jewelry in that she has gone backwards after a promising start. Sunfall was trained by Haggas last year and caused a major upset when despite the big field Cieren Fallon was allowed a soft lead and lasted out. There will be plenty of pace this year and with those drawn high potentialy highly favoured Nadra has a mountain to climb.
No Bet Recommended
Next up in the Cumberland Lodge at 2.25 the stable warrior Hamish and the rapid improver Tenability both go to post in a field that has cut up to just 5 runners.
It has turned soft and Hamish will be strongly fancied to win this. Tenability is running because of the huge importance to his owner breeder in getting Group race black type from her horses. He loves Ascot but this is a steep step up and Hamish holds a big class advantage.
Current Odds Hamish is 13/8 Tenability 7/1.
The presence of Al Qareem at the head of the market with Hamish is a plus as the Burke horse will ensure a good gallop and has never beaten Hamish.
The conditions of the race favour Hamish and with the ground riding soft at the end of racing on Friday, the old warrior, who retains all his ability is worth a bet and turn the fortunes around for the yard, after a shaky couple of days.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Hamish 2.25 Ascot.
In the 3.10 the stable again is doubly represented but any rain forecast will count against Elmonjed who took advantage of the dreadful fall of Almeraq at Doncaster. He has never ran well at Ascot and even if the ground remained good he is not on my radar to back. Lou Lou’s Gift runs in search of black type.
No Bet Recommended
Up the M11 to Newmarket where 3 fillies fly the flag on ground that will be Good to Soft or Soft
In the 1.30 Wonder Star fits the profile of several from the yard that started the season off with a bang and have become disappointing. This drop in grade should suit but all of the well backed horses from the the stable that ran at York that failed to show their running, and have ran poorly next time out. Aerion, and Golden Handshake the prime examples. The 4/1 early show seems short.
No Bet Recommended
However in the fillies Class 2 handicap at 3.50 Orionis is still improving and will benefit if the rain arrives in Suffolk. She was impressive at Newbury when racing with cut in the ground for the first time. There are 3 improving fillies in this race, but I think Buick should get the box seat from a good draw in stall 2 to track the pace set by Alpine Oasis. The form of her last win has yet to be tested and Haggas has won this race twice in the last 7 years.
Miss Wong has been impressive but this is a big step up in grade from a Yarmouth Class 4 .
The horse i cant move away from is Perfect Your Craft who on the balance of form has the beating of Orionis and is a bigger price at 4/1. The Beckett yard has been worth opposing all season but given the events of the last 48 hours i will watch and not invest
No Bet Recommended
In the 5.00 Cognisance has her first run for over a year and is not out of this off a mark of 82. She was a rare Haggas winner on debut as a 3yo and followed that up in tenacious style defying a penalty.
There is a key stat here – with 3yo and 4yo horses coming back from a break of 365 days or longer the stable is 4 from 7 since 2021. Two of the three beaten were in Group company.
its is also noteworthy that William Buick takes the ride despite having previously won on Orchid. However there is a lot of assumption and not to many facts to bet on her price of 11/2 is only Ok – so I will let her run unbacked.
NO BET RECOMMENDED
Sunday Longchamp
There are occasions in Sport where the fetes seem totally against you or for you. From Thursday onwards this week it appears the fete’s have turned against Somerville Lodge, with the draw for the Prix de l’abbaye and Prix de la Foret, delivering a worse possible case scenario for the Haggas team.
In the l’Abbaye at 1.50 basically First Instinct and Sky Majesty have no chance from stalls 18 and 16, if they were mine I would withdraw both.
In the Foret at 4.25 the banker of the weekend More Thunder has been given the worse draw in 16. However the yard has overcome a similar draw when One Master won this race from stall 15. Kinross won from the outside stall in 9. Although drawn lower Space Blues also won coming down the outside. Tom will tuck in, hope that Hollie drawn next him on Witness Stand ensures a good gallop and brings More Thunder with a winning burst of speed inside the final furlong.
8 winners in the past 10 years have been drawn 1-7 and the draw in 16 turns More Thunder from a 3pt Bet to a 2pt Bet. With the compensation being that he will go off a bigger price around 7/2 i suspect on the Pari-Mutual
Recommended Bet 2pt win More Thunder SP ( Pari Mutual ) 4.25 Longchamp.
Summary
2pt win Hamish 2.25 Ascot Saturday
1pt ew Santorini Star 4.00 Longchamp Sunday
2pt win More Thunder 4.25 Longchamp Sunday SP
Chrysalis Consortium 
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