Over the last 14 days 6 winners from 39, 4 of which were odds on, and a 15% strike rate, , provides ample evidence of what we predicted would happen at Somerville Lodge as the flat season winds down and thoughts turn towards 2026.
There are 31 horses entered in the upcoming Horses in Training sale many of whom will depart the yard.
There are an abundance of unraced 2yo’s that will be given debuts, a fair few on the AW, as they set out on journeys from AW maidens to Group races and follow in the footsteps of the likes of Merchant, Santorini Star, Tenability and Bullet Point.
There will however be a select few horses that are campaigned for big Autumn targets and International races.
Investment advices will be significantly reduced, however there are always some target races highlighted that can provide excellent opportunities.
The yards trips to France this year have been a disaster with the trend set by Scoville and Pearla both finishing last after being backed into very short priced favourites and then the draw completely ruling out any chance Sky Majesty and First Instinct had in the l’Abbaye.
In the ‘Foret’ More Thunder ran just about as well as he could given not only the huge disadvantage of the 16 draw but then forced to try to close down a slow pace set by a well drawn Group 1 horse, racing on the best ground. He did remarkable well to be beaten just under 3l finishing 4th. Putting up probably his best ever performance, albeit in defeat.
Monday will be typical of the necessary selective approach now throughout the Autumn with 4 runners going to post.
Bintsaleh is an unraced 2yo closely related to horses such as Cape Flora. She debuts in the 3.30 at Yarmouth the 1m 2yo fillies stakes. She will need middle distances to be at her best and is one to note for the future.
No Bet Recommended
In the 3yo Fillies Novice Stakes at 4.05 Digub returns after a year off the track, everything in her breeding suggests this 1m trip is too short for her and this can only be a watching brief.
No Bet Recommended.
The 2 other runners Pergola in the 4.38 Yarmouth and Seconds Count in the 8.30 at Wolverhampton are both in the afore-mentioned Horses in Training sale. This does of course mean they are trying for their lives but also in terms of form ‘they are what they are’.
Pergola had a golden opportunity to win last time out when allowed an easy lead, but at Sandown in her previous race she showed a dislike for rain softened ground. Marquand will dictate from the front and may again get a easy lead, although she may win, the risks of her not ‘going on the ground’ are too high for her to be a betting proposition at the forecast odds of 4/1. There are 3 fillies in the yard, Silver Chamber, Pergola and Mission Possible who are very similar types rated 69, 68, 67. All three come second more than they win.
However I think Silver Chamber has the stronger form and Furhaan runs here after beating her in Soft ground at Windsor. She is 4/1 joint favourite with Pergola and if more rain arrives she will take some beating.
No Bet Recommended
Seconds Count offered a glimmer of hope, last time out, that she can win a race. However off a mark of 55 she is no more than a very modest maiden that does not merit consideration for betting purposes.
No Bet Recommended
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