Although the events over the weekend became almost surreal, there is no reason to stop following the processes that have proven so successful year after year.
On Monday at Yarmouth despite there being very obvious reasons not to get involved with the three runners, all were supported. The unraced 2yo Bintsaleh 13/2 – 4/1, the 3yo Digub back after a year long break 4/1 -5/2 and Pergola despite the ground concerns, a significant gamble from 4/1 -15/8.
All were well beaten supporting our No Bet Recommendations. On the other hand despite the strike rate dropping to 13% it is no indication that there is something amiss with the yard as the results were very predictable. That case can be proven on Wednesday.
The Haggas record in Nurseries on the AW at Kempton of 8 winners from 35 runners going off 1,2,3,4 in the market is just about the best they have at any track in the country in this particular type of event.
Since 2021 they have only sent one runner to contest a Nursery at the track, Magic Box this summer who duly Won and there is a strong case to be made that Art Lover can follow suit.
There are several key factors.
No 1 On his form with Hilitany who was only beaten 5L in the Middle Park behind the 114 rated Wise Approach his mark of 87 looks reasonable.
No 2 His run last time out in a Nursery at Doncaster behind the heavily backed Sword Maker can be upgraded. At the 2f pole he was going every bit as well as the winner, who has subsequently franked the form by winning a Conditions Stakes at Salisbury. Just before they both started to quicken, at a time when both were travelling strongly, Marquand chose to go outside of Sword Maker and ran into a wall of horses, the gap closed and his chance had gone. Although he was noted staying on strongly again inside the final 100yds. The 5th from the race also boosted the form winning a nursery next time out.
He may not have beaten the winner but i think he would have been within a length. Had that been the case he would have been raised 5lb to a mark of 92. The winner got a 10lb rise. The true reflection of that run has been missed in the form book and should enable us to get a decent price.
No 3 There is a big chance of a pace burn up. Invariably because of the proximity to the first bend 6f races at the track are ran quickly. The horses drawn 1,3,4,5 are all front runners and Art Lover drawn in 6 should be ideally positioned in their slipstream, as long as he gets away smoothly, and pounce in the home straight.
No 4 On breeding there is a good chance Art Lover will improve for running on the polytrack. On his Dam’s side there is a history of the family producing career best performances on this surface.
No 5 His owner has a good record in Nursery Handicaps and is 1 from 1 on AW Nurseries with horses trained at Somerville Lodge. They had the option to go for a valuable Nursery at Newmarket on Friday but the choice to come here is significant.
It all adds up to an ideal opportunity for investment and a 2pt Recommended Bet. I have taken the 4/1 with Bet 365 with the option to cash out at 8.00am if the same or bigger is available at BoG.
In the Nottingham 3.30 Seren Star is another 3yo filly looking to comeback from a disappointing run. Over the last 14 days, Wonder Star, Nardra, Wujjood, Mission Possible, and Jewelry all with similar profiles have attempted to get back to winning form and failed to do so. We have avoided them all and it makes no sense to think Seren Star will buck the trend whose overall form has a weak look to it now.
No Bet Recommended
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