The yard broke their run of 21 losers when Seren Star won at Nottingham on Wednesday but the turn of fortune didn’t last long when Art Lover lost a front shoe on the way to post at Kempton and was surprisingly allowed to run as losing a front shoe has considerably more impact than one of the back shoes.
It was clear from the way he ran through the first couple of furlongs that he was ill at ease. There are two good chances on Thursday.
Every year, although we stick too long held principles there are always lessons to be learned and this season has given rise to the need for caution when backing fillies looking to improve from ratings in the 80’s or higher and gain black type.
With, the notable exception of Santorini Star, the fillies have generally failed to step up to the higher level. The likes of Wonder Star, Pearla, Wujjood, Supermodel, Chorus, Purple Rainbow, Nardra, and Aeolian being examples.
The yard sends two to contest the 1m 6f listed contest at Bath on Thursday. Consecrated can be added to the list of the afore mentioned, stable mates and is easily ignored. However, Term Of Endearment is dropping down in grade to listed company having already won at Group 2 level.
She has yet to win for the yard since joining from Henry De Bromhead and has been the subject of considerable market support on her 3 runs in these shores.
First time out she was desperately unlucky not to win at York when nabbed on the line when looking certain to win and running every bit as well as she did for De Bromhead. Next time out over 2m at Sandown she failed to stay having gone off to fast and her only disappointing run was last time at Goodwood attempting to win the Group 2 race for the 2nd year running.
In hindsight it was a tougher race this year and although not at her best she wasn’t beaten out of sight. Significantly she was 6L clear of Allonsy who was good enough to win in listed grade on her next outing. A repeat of that run will probably good enough to win this.
The Bath race is a golden opportunity, she looks sure to be heading for a life in Australia , there seems little point in running in this contest unless she can record a first win of the year.
Its not a penalty kick with a couple of well regarded Irish raiders but Term of Endearment who has been freshened up since Goodwood will take all the beating. Haggas has failed to win this contest in 4 previous attempts to win but they were all with fillies looking to get black type and Term of Endearment is the first to go to post with an obvious chance and we should get around 13/8.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Term of Endearment 2.30 Bath
The mare and filly are joined on the trip to Bath by the maiden Magic Star first time in a handicap in the 4.12. He is rated 73 which is only OK for what he has done but the step back up in trip to 10f will help. However it is not the time of year now to assume the improvement he will need to make is likely and given he is in the Horses in Training Sale – on balance it seems best to watch , especially at the early price of only 7/2.
No Bet Recommended
Two runners head for the AW at Newcastle and the 2yo Proposal ridden by James Doyle for Wathnan Racing is worth an interest if odds of around 2/1 are available in the Novice over 7f at 5.30
The Haggas record with 2yo’s sent to the North East in October is 7 from 14 which provides ample reason for the investment. Three of the 7 losers were on debut and although Proposal has to bounce back from the slightly disappointing run last time James Doyle is not going to Newcastle for the journey and he can win on his only ride on the day.
The Goldophin trained favourite Morning Rose doesn’t look to be an obvious 2yo winner on breeding.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Proposal who is available at 2/1.
At Chelmsford Mamma Maria is out again in the 8f handicap at 7.45. She possibly had the excuse of the ground turning soft on her last run at Thirsk.
However she fits the current profile of many fillies in recent weeks from the yard that are looking to bounce back following defeat and although Seren Star became the first to do so successfully on Wednesday I still see no need to get involved at a price of around 4/1.
No Bet Recommended
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