The way we set out to make a profit leaves missing winners that mostly follow the process, without a bet, with a worse feeling than backing losers.
There has really only been one occasion before York on Friday and Saturday when this has been a genuine cause of huge frustration this season. Not backing Sam Hawkens at Goodwood
It was however a nightmare 2 days at York when Mukhtalif, Division, Binhareer, and Marshdi all WON after I took a no bet cautious approach,
Noble Horizon turned out to be our only bet on Saturday backed from 17/2 into 9/2 and landed the ew money, which at least mean’t we didn’t lose any money on, what was still as bad a day, following the Haggas yard, as i can recollect in nearly 30 years.
I think the poor run of the yard in the period up and including Longchamp lulled me into a false sense of caution, but there are no excuses and all we can do is move on
Onto Sunday and Goodwood with three runners all ridden by Ceiren Fallon and Marquand travelling to Naas for the ride on Abloom in the listed race at 3.10.
She will need to continue her rapid rate of improvement in the 18 runner field with 9 fillies rated higher than her mark of 91. There is no doubt that her Ascot win flatters her as she was allowed to establish a very soft lead and the race was in effect over as a contest after 2f.
Haggas has a great record at Naas with 4 winners from 8 runners. Three of those winners were favourite. His only previous attempt to win this contest was in 2023 when Good Gracious with a very similar profile to Abloom (rated 2lb higher) was second at 14/1. Placed Black type is probably the best that Abloom can hope for even though she isa big strong filly that has scope for further improvement, the rating of 91 looks high and connections will be delighted if she can be in the frame.
No Bet Recommended.
First up at Goodwood is Showering in the 8 runner 6 furlong handicap at 3.37. Realign was entered for this and would have been a certainty but that one has bigger fish to fry.
Showering is not well handicapped still rated higher than his Chester win and he will need others to run below form if he too feature.
No Bet Recommended
Of even less interest is Regalian in the 4.37. All i can reiterate is this horse doesn’t want to win.
No Bet Recommended
Possibly the best chance of a win on the day is Day of Grace in the finale at 5.22. When she won on heavy ground at Catterick for most of the contest she looked more likely to finish last than first, but the leaders faltererd and under a Sean Bowen type ride from Marquand won with something to spare.
The step up in trip will help but the faster ground is a concern. The handicapper took a view that the win was good and put her up 6lb to a mark of 74. She is also up in grade and has some potential improvers against her.
The last 9 horses from the yard to run at in handicaps at Goodwood in October have ran well without winning and that is probably going to be the case for Day of Grace on Sunday.
No Bet Recommended
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