Wednesday and Thursday posers?

There is no escaping the fact that over the last 7 days when faced with a clear choice of Yes or No to back horses from the yards running to improve their ratings for the purpose of the Autumn Horses in Training Sale we have got it wrong !!

On reflection there has been a common factor, that wasn’t that difficult to pick up but it’s always easier with hindsight.

Here is the list of horses to have ran over this period that will potentially come under the hammer.

Headmaster Rating 84 Last win Rating ?? – Result u/p 10/3

Showering Rating 89 Last Win Rating 88 – Result 3rd 6/1

Jewelry Rating 84 Last Win Rating ?? – Result u/p 10/3 u/p 40/1

Suhub Rating 70 Maiden Rating 70 Result u/p 11/2

Pergola Rating 69 Last Win Rating 65 Result 4th 15/8 4th 7/2

Seconds Out Rating 55 Maiden Result 4th 18/1

Magic Star Rating 72 Maiden Result 3rd 9/2

Mukhtalif Rating 81 Last Win Rating 81 Won 9/2

Molten Sea Rating 72 Last Win Rating 66 u/p9/2

Noble Horizon Rating 85 Last Win Rating 87 3rd 9/2

Day of Grace Rating 74 Last Win Rating 68 Won 3/1

Regalion Rating 85 Last win Rating ?? 3rd 7/1

Fine Art Dealer Rating ?? Maiden 4th 11/4

Raneenn Rating 84 Last Win Rating 81 Won 8/1

There have been 2 winners from 14 attempts. Two of the three winners were below or equal to their rating following a win.( well handicapped) The other Noble Horizon advised ew was (3rd 9/2 -15/2)

1. All 4 maidens lost.

2, The three horses that won as 2yo’s and not given a rating have not Won since.

3. Three horses running off a mark higher than their previous handicap winning mark lost. Day of Grace was the exception but she was the only horse trying to follow up a win on her last outing.

The two 3yo’s horses running on Wednesday and Thursday are very much in the mode of the above examples, in fact Silver Chamber who runs in the 3.14 at Nottingham on Wednesday was put in the sale but has been withdrawn.

She fits into the category of the losing horses discussed , winning her handicap from a mark of 68 but beaten off a revised mark and trying again to defy the new mark of 80. There is further reason not to support her as the Sandown win came on a day when they raced on fresh ground and every winner got onto the far rail and won easily. All six have failed to win again.

No Bet Recommended

Purple Rainbow is the only runner on Thursday in the 6.30 at Southwell. She is in the category of the horses that won as 2yo’s that did not get a rating and have not Won since. She is racing off a very lenient mark of 74. However they don’t seem to be sure of her best trip and her last two runs have been really poor, although the ground can be given as an excuse.

No Bet Recommended

Although, our processes based on trends has let us down, during this period especially with the wins of Yabher and Binhareer. The wrong 50 – 50 calls made with Mukhtalif, Division, Day of Grace and Kinswoman ( should have won) proved costly as well.

i think it has just been 10 days starting with the Arc meeting that fete has dealt us a rotten hand and we will soon be back on track.

Of the recent losers Another Abbot, and Itraaq both chucked the towel in and father time caught up with Hamish.

Both Fine At Dealer, (badly hampered) and Art Dealer (lost front shoe at the start )had little chance following those mishaps.

The 2yo’s have hit form without warning. Having been 6 (4 odds on) from 30 in the period between the 1st September and 9th October, from the 10th to the 14th there have been 4 from 8 with 3 runners up including 2 unraced 2yo’s beaten a nose and 1L.

That leads us onto Melodic who makes her debut in the 1.35 at Nottingham on Wednesday. She is very likely to be well supported given the good run of the Somerville Lodge juveniles but there is still no way of knowing which horses will run well on debut and which don’t.

In the last 2 years there have been 12 first time out 2yo winners from 101 runners.

Their starting prices have been in the following ranges:

Odds on – 11/10 – 0 from 4

6/5 – 3/1 – 2 from 11

10/3 – 6/1 – 3 from 28

13/2 – 10/1 – 1 from 23

11/1 – 14/1 – 3 from 20

15/1 to 33/1 – 2 from 12

There is the reality. 6 winners with an SP under 10/1 – 5 winners between 11/1 and 33/1.

A long way of saying Melodic 1.35 Nottingham.

No Bet Recommended

Back Friday.