Hag Tag Champions Day

Good ground and a day of intrigue and expectation for Somerville Lodge as the curtain comes down on a roller coaster season.

The brilliance of the training methodology has again shone through with horses making phenomenal improvement alongside frustration with setbacks and misfortune to leading stars Economics, Montassib and Almeraq. 

There has also been the surreal reality of the balloting out of horses at Royal Ascot and the bad draws given to the stable stars on Arc weekend at Longchamp.

Two of the injured horses feature on Saturday, which is a bonus and adds weight to the team sent to Ascot on a day where victory’s in the past have been sporadic for the team, a fact that cannot be ignored, when assessing the chances on Saturday.

The draw at this meeting generally favours horses with single figure numbers. 

First up is the reappearance after a 7 Day break, Division in the newly introduced 2yo race now the second event on the card at 1.30.

I like the look of this race for this horse who is bred to be a Group 1 sprinter. There was serious consideration given to going for the Group 1 Middle Park after his Novice Stakes wins. They went for the listed Rockingham as another stepping stone which proved ideal . He blew that race apart and on Saturday takes on horses that look just shy of Group 1 standard. 

The Goldolphin favourite Words of Truth and the Ballydoyle runners look vulnerable to an improver, such as Division. 

The colt in terms of what Haggas does with his 2yo Group horses fits the profile. Always sprinters, they improve throughout the season Relief Rally and Sky Majesty being the most recent examples.

The draw bias towards single numbers at this meeting means  Division in 9 is ok and Doyle will have a choice of staying centre or edging across to the far rail . Division is a great ew price at 11/2 and is well worth an interest.

Recommended Bet 1pt EW Division 1.30 Ascot. 11/2 Sky Bet and PP 

In the Champions Sprint at 2.05 Montassib is fancied to improve on his 5th in the race last season. That run came off the back of a Group 1 win in the Betfair Sprint at Haydock. 

His curtailed campaign this year, only began    with a run over 5f at Newbury. He runs well fresh and but for a very slow start probably should have finished in front of stable companion First Instinct who won the race. 

He has a leading chance, potentially well drawn in 3 however slightly softer ground would have been ideal and those at the front of the pace, may just poach too much of a lead. 

Course specialists excel at Ascot and the Golden Jubillee winner Lassat is expected to get back on track and repeat his brilliant win at the Royal meeting and give Wathnan a double on the card. 

No Bet Recommended. 

The long awaited return of Economics takes place in the Champions Stakes probably the race of the season, with the best horses in England, Ireland and France taking each other on. 

At his best Economic’s belongs in that company- however if he can win this after the troubled build up – it will probably be the greatest ever training performance by William Haggas. Hopefully he will run well and be a horse to follow this winter and next season. 

What wins ? I think the overall form of Calandagan is better than Delacroix and Ombudsman and I can see Mikel Barcelona repeating his winning performance in the Arc on Daryx. 

No Bet Recommended. 

Finally for Somerville Lodge the enigmatic Crown of Oaks attempts to end the season where he has epitomised the roller coaster campaign by capturing the Balmoral Stakes Handicap at 4.40. 

He started the season with the expectation of contesting Group races. Those plans didn’t last long after two disappointing runs in maidens. He was gelded and off a mark in the 70’s won a couple of handicaps resulting in a sharp increase to 99. 

He wasn’t best placed when beaten at odds on in a Premier Handicap at the Curragh, which put paid to a bid for the Cambridgeshire for which he was 4/1 Antepost favourite. 

Haggas is on record as saying this stiff straight mile will suit him and having been over cautious in these big handicaps this month, I am loathed to miss out again. 

There is every chance he will run a big race and be back on track to contest Group races as a 4yo. However the history of this race when run on good or good to soft suggests low draws have an advantage and the Haggas high draw jinx at Longchamp appears to be lingering and his draw 23 of 23 could be a big disadvantage against the stands rail. 

The yard won this race with Aldaary in 2021 on good to soft who went far side. In terms of bets it is not possible until we see if there is a track bias. 

Recommended Bet TBC after Champion Sprint although if low numbers seem favoured No bet. 

In Sydney in the early hours of the morning two stable stalwarts Sam Hawkens and Lake Forest attempt to improve the stables great record down under.

Sam Hawkens who has been sold runs for the last time with Haggas as the trainer in the St Leger stakes the 3.40 am at Randwick. He is expected to win but 6/4 about a horse with no record of International racing is too short. 

Then in the King Charles 11 stakes the 7.35am at Randwick over 1m Lake Forest attempts to win again in Australia. 

There is some rain forecast on ground already Good to Soft which will be against the 4yo and at 13/2 there is no value with the potential for soft ground. 

No Bet Recommended.