The weekend once again added to the roller coaster season where once again ‘expect the unexpected’ was the rule.
As Haggas himself inferred it was almost impossible that all the jockeys in the Balmoral Handicap would come across the the stands side and enable Crown of Oaks to make all . It was brilliant for the yard and I know some followers that backed him but the fact that Holloway Boy drawn 3 and EBT’s Guard drawn 1 dead heated for 2nd beaten a neck does suggest that Crown of Oaks was a very fortunate winner.
Division got bumped on both sides coming out of the stalls which lit him up and the race was lost after a 1f. Exactly the same happened to Fine Art Dealer on Monday and shows you always need that bit of good fortune especially with 2yo’s in races 7f or under.
Dubai Honour was just touched off in thriller in Longchamp as we suggested by the Karl Burke trained Convergent . He ran a great race and will be ready to do battle in Hong Kong.
No runners on Monday but a whole host of unraced 2yo’s entered from Tuesday to Saturday. Not that we will back any of them . However there will be several that are considered potentially the better ones in the yard. This statistics will explain why,
William Haggas: Unraced 2-Year-Old Debut Analysis (Last 10 Years)
📊 OVERALL DEBUT STATISTICS
Sample Size: 284 unraced 2-year-old debuts (Oct 2015 – Oct 2025)
Performance Metrics:
- Win Rate: 11.62% (33 wins)
- Strike Rate: 1 winner per 8.6 debuts
- Top 3 Finish: 36.62% (104 placed)
- Top 4 Finish: 48.24% (137 runners)
Comparison to Experienced 2YO:
- Experienced 2YO win rate: 22.49%
- Debuts are -10.87% less likely to winthan horses with previous experience.
- 📅 YEAR-BY-YEAR TRENDS Unraced 2yo
Year 2020. 3 Wins 15 Runs - Year 2022 6 Wins 61 Runs
- Year 2022 5 Wins 45 Runs
- Year 2023 9 Wins 61 Runs
- Year 2024 11 Wins 66 pRuns
- Year 2025 1 Wins 36 Race
Key Insight
2024 was the best recent year for debuts (16.7%), while 2025 has been poor so far (only 2.8%).
With only one unraced 2yo winning so far this season there is every chance one or two will win this week. The market is never a guide so given the overall record its best to watch and note for the future. Here are the main entries this week for unraced 2yo’s
Henrietta Runner 1.48 Newmarket Weds
Thunder Call 2.23 Newmarket Weds
Zenner Storm 2.33 Newmarket Weds
Masked Warrior 2.08 Doncaster Friday
Infraad 2.08 Doncaster Friday
King of Earth 2.08 Doncaster Friday
Needle Match 2.16 Newbury Friday
Litt 2.43 Doncaster Friday
Venetian Sky 2.43 Doncaster Friday
Oathbound 4.01 Newbury Friday
There will be more for Saturday but that list looks sure to contain at least a couple of future stars.
Diary of a Season October 19th 2025
Chrysalis Consortium 
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