Several followers have messaged me questioning the expected performance of the unraced 2yo’s from the Haggas yard running this weekend at Newbury and Doncaster.
Here are the facts about all 2yo’s running in Maiden and Novice Stakes races at Doncaster and Newbury on the equivalent day this weekend this century.
55 Runners – 4 Winners (3 with previous experience 1 unraced).
The 1 unraced winner Domino Darling was sent off at 10/1.
No unraced horse sent off 1,2,3 in the market has Won.
Of course that could change this weekend, however what will not change is the way the horses will be ridden which will be all about education with the future in mind.
There are 2 circumstances in which they can win.
1.- they are an exceptional horse.
2.- the race is poor.
Usually unraced horses from the yard win when there is an overly fast pace from the front.
So far this season the record with unraced 2yo’s is 2-40 with the two horses to have won sent off at 9/2 and 6/1. The record with horses going off less than 4/1 is 0-13.
Last season was the best this century for unraced 2yo winners with 11 from 66 and that provides some hope for those you backing the unraced horses this weekend with 2 of those winners being at Newbury (in August). overall the record since 2021 at all Newbury and Doncaster meetings for unraced 2yo’s is 4 from 48.
Currently; Needle Match, Ifraad, Oathbound, and Lilt are priced up at 3/1 or less.
If you have a tip for any, it will be based purely on guess work and or possibly breeding but that has never been any sort of guide to backing an unraced Haggas horse.
A quick mention of a ‘tip’ we did follow yesterday for the James Tate trained 3yo Ghaiyyath Park backed from 7/1 into 2/1 before drifting out to an S.P of 16/5.
She went too hard from the front and probably needs 10f + to be at her best. Mamma Maria was the first filly to challenge and committed too soon enabling the closers to get up close home.
It exemplified how important pace is to any race
With todays big bet Day of Grace she will be held up off a strong pace which should be ideal on the soft ground.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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