8 are currently due to go to post on Saturday but the yard pulled out 3 of their original 15 on Friday and there could be some defections to follow on Saturday.
Two unraced 2yo’s My Orphelia and Earth Shot are up first in the 2.34 at Newbury, normally this would be followed by a one line of No Bet Recommended, however My Orphelia cost 1.8 million as a yearling, is related to three horses rated 110+ and is the most eagerly awaited debutant from the yard this season. That being said no change from the advice NO BET RECOMMENDED and be weary of any market moves and short prices.
The same applies to the other unraced 2yo on debut at Newbury Hoseki in the 4.19.
I know a couple of the yards 2yo’s Won on Friday but that was only due to weak opposition and falsely ran races. It is pure chance. One of those beaten King of Earth showed the best potential and I suspect he will be back at Newbury in the Spring to contest one of the hot maidens at the Greenham meeting.
The yard will be thrilled with the performances of the 8 2yo’s that ran with 2 winners, 4 second and 2 5th places. The juveniles have been slow to come to hand this year and the normal patterns have not been hit, which has impacted our overall profit and loss.
Another horse we have lost on is Headmaster who we backed from 28/1 – 2/1 and 14/1 to 3/1 in two top summer handicaps. We didn’t follow him again in another handicap at Kempton when he again left the money behind.
I can guarantee he will be withdrawn from the Autumn sales. Given his breeding the fact he was in the sales suggested he was not going to fulfil the potential of his homework.
Fair play though to those that went in for the 4th time on Friday fitted with a tongue tie and ridden cold instead of from the front, he finally obliged to win again well backed at 9/2.
I was more than happy to just go with the one Maximum 3pt Bet on Day of Grace who absolutely hacked up to land the gamble from 15/8 to 6/5.
Back to Saturday and the handicappers – in the Doncaster Nursery at 3.15 the dice is thrown with Brotherhood of Man and Art Lover in a field of just 5.
Brotherhood of Man is booked in for the Tattersalls Horses in Training sale starting on Monday and there is no evidence whatsoeover including in his breeding to suggest he will act on Heavy ground. Art Lover attempts to recoup Kempton losses and whilst there is a better chance he will act on the ground, the Charlie Hills trained Chapter flourished on it at Salisbury and his hard to ignore.
No Bet Recommended
High Degree in the 3.50 at Doncaster fits the profile of several 3yo handicap winners from the yard in recent weeks. His form at Ascot on soft ground over today’s trip of a mile has been boosted on several occasions.
I am not sure he was suited by being asked to lead and was caught close home. If he leads here it is very doubtful he will win as with several other pacesetters in the line up he will be going to fast.
We missed Crown of Oaks last Saturday under freakish circumstances, but with Binhareer and The Reverend the other two big handicap winners we have watched without backing there were very genuine reasons to suggest the ground had gone against them.
My only concern about High Degree is ‘Sods Law’. He is a well handicapped horse still improving as this will be only his 6th run.
He is proven with cut in the ground , is well handicapped, has the ideal draw and will have a good pace to aim at on the straight track. Most importantly given the conditions where stamina is paramount he will stay 10f.
Of the rivals only Volvano, at this grade is proven over further and I expect High Degree to have too much speed and stamina in the final furlong. His Ante Post price of 3/1 was skinny but he has drifted to around 4/1 – 5/1 and he looks a solid bet.
The stats are very interesting when Haggas targets horses for handicaps at this meeting, doing well with horses that have had less than 7 runs.
Recommended Bet 1.5pt ew High Degree 3.50 Doncaster BOG 1,2,3,4 places
Finally the St Simon Stakes the Group 3 at Newbury off at 3.45.The stable stalwarts Hamish and Al Aasy face off here with both drifting in the early markets despite ground conditions being in their favour. I got the feeling on both their last outings that all was not right. Al Aasy has been on the go since April and Hamish has been messed around all season by the dry conditions and his performance at Ascot suggested he may have had enough. I hope I am wrong and he can bounce back to his best but I don’t want to bet on it.
No Bet Recommended
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