Looking back at the form of the yard over the last week there is a case to be made that we bailed out early deciding not to bet this week and with very few bets over the last two to three weeks.
Mainly it has been the 2yo’s who finally came to the party having been slow to come to hand and on a positive note there have been 4 or 5 juveniles that look potentially group class 3yo’s in waiting.
Before moving onto Saturday a quick look at the 2yo’s that have ran over the last two weeks that we choose to watch without backing. Without doubt the horse most strongly fancied to win was Princling at Newmarket who finished 2nd behind Yazin. The Gosden horse gave Princling 7lb and a clear beating and with any sort of progress is surely a Group horse next season. Certainly, there remains a good deal of faith that Princling will be useful.
On the same afternoon Gaspacho and Zooming made significant progress to both win on the same card.
The unraced 2yo winners My Orphelia and Sober Strike have quite rightly been talked up as potential top notchers but it is worth noting the rule that Haggas first time out 2yo winners are either very good or are shown to have beaten poor opponents. Time will tell.
The continued form of the yard right into November is highlighted by the fact that they have runners at the Doncaster end of season fixture for the first time in 3 years. It is a strong team that should provide a winning end to a very good season.
There is also the matter of two of the stable stars running in Australia in the early hours of Saturday morning to cover off.
First up in the Novice at 12.15 is Thunder Call the half brother to Skardu showed little on debut and this quick turnaround is probably all about experience in readiness for next season.
The same comments apply to Perfect Ruler in the 12.50
No Bet Recommended
The first bet on the card has to be Montassib in the listed sprint at 13.25. These sprints have been notoriously difficult to assess this year but given the form of the yard and the perfect conditions for this Group 1 winner, in a listed race where, at his best, he is 10lb ahead of anything else in the field. He is drawn in 9 next to the guaranteed pace in the race from Art Power in 10 and it will be very disappointing if he doesn’t pick up those in front in the final furlong. I was surprised the 7/4 was available.
Recommended Bet 2pt WIN Montassib 13.25 Doncaster.
Another potentially well treated filly is Sing the Blues in the Nursery at 2.00pm. She is unproven on Soft ground but is out of an unraced Pivotal mare which suggests it might not be a problem. James Doyle again has the ride and I expect him to keep things simple and attempt to make all.
The price won’t be great but she is worth a bet.
Recommended Bet 1pt Win Sing The Blues 14.00 Doncaster.
Two handicaps and a fillies listed race end the season and the Haggas yard has had their fair share of big handicap winners but also some very unfortunate losses. Realign aims to follow up his third win of the season and is potentially a group horse racing in a handicap.
His mark of 93 is 6lb higher than his easy win at Haydock but that is still low for a horse who in June was considered to be Commonwealth Cup class. That didn’t materialise but the gelding operation seems to have transformed the horse and he can win this before progressing to Group races next season.
The draw in 12 is questionable and is the reason the 3yo is only a 2pt rather than 3pt Bet
Recommended Bet 2pt Win Realign 2.35 Doncaster
In the listed race at 3.10 Anna Swan will be backed to go one better than her improved run at Yarmouth. However in opposition is the James Doyle ridden Danielle who was the subject of a losing 3pt Bet for us over this course, when beaten by the Haggas trained Santorini Star.
Danielle looked to be cruising to victory at the 2f marker, but was outbattled by Santorini Star.
Danielle should win this but I can’t back her after that Doncaster run but I also don’t want to be against her under these conditions, which look perfect for her.
No BET Recommended.
Finally Castle Cove in the November Handicap at 3.45 aims to recover losses from a significant gamble at Newbury that we didn’t get involved in.
Conditions again look ideal and the addition of the hood should help. There has been an Ante Post move for him from 10/1 into 9/2 but that is down to the Haggas factor and not really relevant to his chances. He is drawn in 4 which should be good but for some reason in the November handicap seems to be very bad with no low drawn horses featuring in the finish for a number of years..
The turf season kicked off with a Win for Somerville Lodge with Godwinson in the Lincoln, in a race where everything possible went right for him and I suspect despite the market support that will need to be the case for Castle Cove and at that very short price I will watch and cheer him on for the yard without backing him.
NO Bet Recommended Bet
It will be an early start to the day with two of the stable stalwarts Lake Forest and Bullet Point in action down under.
First up at 5.30 UK time is Lake Forest on a recovery mission following being given no chance by the ride in the King Charles 11 stakes a couple of weeks. The Champion Mile stakes is tougher and the 18/1 odds reflect his chance.
That being said, those were the odds when he won the Golden Eagle a year ago. However i don’t believe lightning can strike twice and it’s a great race to watch and enjoy.
20 minutes later 500 miles away in Sydney Bullet Point has a realistic chance of winning the Five Diamonds listed race at Rosehill, with conditions absolutely perfect, providing he has acclimatised to life down under.
Haggas delivered a very up market report on the horse on Wednesday and with an each way price available he is worth an interest to make the early start pay off.
Recommended Bet 1pt ew Bullet Point 5.50 Rosehill–Back SP
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