December on the AW for Haggas followers

The AW winter months of December and January as a rule maintain the high strike rate enjoyed by Somerville Lodge punters throughout the year.

A focus on the AW tracks at Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle with runners sent off 1,2,3 in the market in these two months produces a profitable return backing all the horses blindly from a strike rate of 40% with 26 winners from 66 runners. By age it is :

2 year olds 6 winners from 22 runners 27%

3 year olds 16 from 32 runners 50%

Older horses 6 from 16 runners 37%

From this point it is worth adjusting the returns to avoid unraced horses this adjusts the numbers as follows:

24 winners from 57 runners 42%

2 year olds 4 winners from 13 runners 30%

3 year olds 16 from 31 runners 52%

Older horses 6 from 16 runners 37%

The type of race doesn’t change the % to any great deal accept for 2yo Novice stakes which produces only 4 from 16 due to a number of big yards targeting these races for potentially very good horses making them more competitive.

Handicaps 10 from 27 runners 37%

2 yo Maidens 2 from 4 runners 50%

3yo Maidens 4 from 6 runners 66%

2 yo Novice Stakes 4 from 16 runners 25%

3yo Novice Stakes 4 from 7 runners 57%

By omitting altogether 2yo Novices the overall win rate becomes 22 winners from 50 and a strike rate of 44%.

All those numbers add up to some serious betting opportunities especially given the continued good form of the yard throughout November.Although Southwell, Chelmsford and Wolverhampton have not been the focus of attention, given the yards intention to keep many more older horses in training in 2026 they are worth keeping a close eye on. The yard was 3 from 4 and 1 runner up in November with 3yo’s and older horses at Southwell.

There are plenty of entries this week beginning at Kempton on Monday.

I will cover each entry throughout December and January in great detail.

12.27 Kempton 7f 2yo Novice Stakes – Horse Keep It Classic.

The 2yo Novice Stakes races are the least profitable race types in December and January due to the fact that the opposition can include some very useful horses.

Keep it Classic in his two runs has shown very little if any aptitude for racing and is running here for a third time in the hope of some progression and to get a handicap mark. On present form that at best will be a mark in the low 50’s.

This is exactly the kind of hot novice contest that occurs this time of year, with at least 4 of the runners potentially 80 or 90+ rated horses down the line.

Keep it Classic is homebred by Lael Stables who have had great success with horses in training with Haggas most notably the 3 time Prix De Le Foret winner One Master. However, there is no chance the horse will be sent off in the first 3 in the market and the hope is the colt can at least show a semblance of ability.

12.57 Kempton 8f 2yo Novice Stakes – Horse Windbreaker

Another very classy 2yo Novice Stakes sees the debut of Windbreaker a Sea the Stars colt out of Cloudy Dawn a Group 3 winning mare trained by Haggas

He starts off in a race the yard won by the yard in 2024 with the unraced First Principle who was a surprise winner at 10/1 and would have gone off unbacked under our guidelines. Although First Principle has eventually progressed well the rest of the field of 13 have only won two races and generally it fits into the category of first time out Haggas 2yo winners succeeding in what turns out to be a poor race.

This years renewal again attracts a field of horses trained by leading yards and it is debatable as to whether Windbreaker will feature in the first 3 in the betting. He is a 100,000F, 375,000Y the dam, winner up to 1m (2-y-o 6f winner), closely related to useful 1m-1¼m winner Iromea.

A striking bay colt he is one to watch but based on the potential strength of the opposition and the stats relating to his debut contest he is unlikely to make a winning start.

4.32 Kempton 13f 3yo fillies handicap -Horse Mission Possible

The seven raced maiden filly fits into the category of a win being worth far more than the value of the race and also the yard doing whatever it can to get that maiden victory. The Timeform description of the horse tells us exactly why.

‘725,000Y: by Dubawi: third foal: half-sister to French 7f winner Liwa Oasis (by Lope de Vega) and Japanese 1m winner Lost Secret (by Siyouni): dam unraced sister to high-class winner up to 1½m Mogul and very smart winner up to 13.4f Japan, out of useful 1½m/13f winner Shastye) an expensive yearling with a pedigree to match.’

Her paddock value on the International stage is huge and a win on a wet windy night at Kempton in December whilst never the plan , will however suffice.

On the plus side arguably her best performance of the 7 so far was on her second outing here over course and distance when she was an eyecatcher behind the now 93 rated Little Dorrit. The rest of the form from the race is poor and her rating of 67 is not leniant.

It was assumed that a step up in trip to 14f-16f would see her gain her victory but first time in a handicap at Haydock sent off 7/4 favourite in a good quality Class 5 handicap in first time blinkers, she put in a mulish display when forced to race wide and ran no sort of race. She has again been well supported on her next three outings upped to 14f and then 2 miles at Wolverhampton where she got beaten for speed rather than any lack of stamina.

The drop back to 13f doesn’t really look as though it will benefit her. The stats also are not in her favour with only 2 maidens from the yard winning handicaps on the AW in November, December, January in the last 5 seasons from a total of 25 attempts.

Given a starting price of 3/1 or less the value is not there for betting purposes, especially with many better opportunties in the days ahead.

REFA HagTag 01 December 2025