I think it is probably a first for Somerville Lodge to send out a team of six on the AW in December but that is the case on Wednesday. The focus will be on the unraced filly Evening Fades with Ryan Moore booked on his long awaited return from injury.
She debuts in the 1.30 at Lingfield in a fillies maiden over 8f. Surprisingly the booking of Moore is not a positive on the stats. His last nine rides on 2yo’s for the yard have ben beaten and you need to go back to September 2020 for the last 2yo winner for Haggas.
Home bred and closely related to the ex Michael Stoute trained Lights Out she is sired by Ulysses which would suggest that a mile would be at the lower end of her trip requirements.
I don’t see any significance on this occasion of the booking of Ryan Moore and like nearly all the Haggas 2yo’s she will need the experience on her debut. Her opening price of 15/8 is all down to the jockey booking and I would expect her to drift significantly.
In the 2.00 at Lingfield the days feature race Haggas sends Frances Ethel and Winter Flower to contest the 10f Class 2 Winter Oaks Trial. Both should run well.
Frances Ethel the mount of Jason Hart still appears to be rehabilitating from her move from South Africa and her mark of 95 down 4lb from the latest run at Newcastle reflects this, as does her price of 25/1. ( i expect her to outrun those odds) .That run was a step forward and I have no doubt there is a plan and Haggas will get a win(s) from her although probably not on this outing.
However, the stables other runner Winter Flower put up a career best when runner up at Newcastle on her last run and Joanne Mason who has a fine record for the yard travels down to Lingfield for one ride.
Winter Flower fits the profile of many Somerville Lodge fillies who are given time and then take rapid steps forward and go through the grades. Although put in here as the 7/2 market leader, she will need to step up again to record a second victory of her career.
The Haggas record at Lingfield with fillies in the winter months, suggests Winter Flower will show the necessary improvement. Back down in trip, well drawn and with the excellent Joanne Mason on board I expect her to be handy throughout and be too strong in the final furlong for her 8 rivals.
Winter Flower 2pt win bet 7/2 or bigger BOG
Carbine Harvester runs in the 7.40 at Kempton and the 3yo gelding can continue his excellent run of form on Artificial surfaces. Last winter the son of Hello Youmzain was on the point of being sold by his owners but then rattled off a hat trick of wins. On the first two occasions defying a significant drift in the market to win at 10/1 and 17/2 before being supported on his hat trick bid to win at 15/8.
A highly respectable runner up spot followed in a class 2 handicap at Lingfield was followed by another win here at Kempton where he outgunned Brosay, who is now rated 97 off level weights to gain a 4th AW win of the campaign.
The handicapper took aim rising him to a mark of 90 for the AW finals sprint handicap at Newcastle where he again ran a great race beaten just under 2L finishing 5th behind Berkshire Whisper. The form of the race is exceptional.
The winner Berkshire Whisper was rated 89 is now rated 98.
Tuco Salamanca rated 79 finished a neck in front Carbine Harvester is now 92
Just behind in a 4 way photo for 4th were the Andrew Balding pair Humum rated 87 now 91 and Marchogian rated 86 now 97.
Understandable Carbine Harvester was given a break and returned to the turf didn’t show the same sparkle in 3 outings. However back on the AW at Kempton last time out down to a mark of 87 he showed he was still a force to be reckoned with , finishing 3rd in a Class 2 6f handicap only beaten 2 necks by the rapidly improving Coul Angel and the course specialist Heathcliff. Behind in 4th was the heavily backed Completely Random who has form in the major 6f Sprint Handicaps and Invictus Gold who subsequently ran well in a listed race at Southwell.
The handicapper has left Carbine Harvester on a mark of 87 which puts him with a great chance of gaining a 2nd Course and Distance win down in grade to Class 4. One of the notable features of the horses career has been the good fortune he has been given with the draw. Once again this factor has worked in his favour being drawn in Stall 1 and Fallon should be able to dictate from the front, and allow the horses toughness and desire to win to stay in front at the line.
Nearly all the opposition have major negatives to overcome and are out of form. Something can always come out of the woodwork in these sprints but on the bare facts and with the yard remaining in terrific form Carbine Harvester rates a good 2pt Bet BOG 7/2 or bigger
Back at Kempton and Vizija and Zennor Storm contest a couple of 2yo Novice Stakes races the 4.05 and 4.40 at Kempton.
As previously stated you can never be sure at this time of year on the strength of the opposition in the Kempton Novice stakes races, as was the case on Monday when Goldolphin introduced two very useful 2yo’s that outclassed their rivals.
There are mixed messages from the fillies breeding as she is a half sister to the very useful Somerville Lodge trained Kettle Hill but also to her former stable mate Seconds Count who remained a maiden and was sold at the Tattersalls Autumn Sales and is now in the care of Dr Newland.
Let’s hope Vizija can give the owners a more productive return and starts her career positively on Wednesday. The yard will also have an eye on the Juddmonte filly Serenetta who was third behind Zooming at Newmarket and will give a early gauge to the value of that race.
In the 4.40 the first time out course winner Zennor Storm attempts to defy a penalty for his course win at the end of October. The opposition does not include any especially well bred newcomers with most of the field looking likely to need further than this mile and are running to gain experience.
The form of the colts win has yet to be proven on the track , however Haggas in the last 5 years has only asked 19 2yo’s to defy a penalty in a Novice Stakes race and 10 were winners. At Kempton the record is 2 from 2.
The price will determine whether Zennor Storm is a betting proposition. I will have a 2pt win bet at any price of 7/4 or bigger BOG
Hag Tag 02 December 2025
Chrysalis Consortium 
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