Chrysalis Consortium

Transformational Betting for 2026

Haggas – Dry January?

By the middle of January in 2025 the Somerville Lodge team had two winners on the board and headed into the Newcastle Trials Day Fixture having sent out 9 runners before the valuable Newcastle meeting.

Last season was the inaugural running of this fixture at Gosforth Park and Haggas didn’t have a representative, which was surprising as the yard has a great record in Class 2 and 3 handicaps at the track.

A couple head North on Friday, this year following just seven runners so far none of which have given the yard an initial success for the year. There are three above average horses out this weekend starting with two on Friday.

The course and distance winner Wiltshere goes for the 6f Class 2 Sprint Trial at 3.20. Well drawn in Stall 11 he returned from almost a year off the track on New Years Day showing just enough to suggest he retains his ability. He was dropped 3lb for that run, but it seems very likely that the final on Good Friday will be the target and I expect the 6yo to improve again but not sufficiently to to take the home the 20,000 purse.

Before his set back last Spring Wiltshire had been contesting a couple of weak looking Group races, but he seemed especially well suited to the Newcastle Tapeta surface. If he turns up on Good Friday or in June at the Pitmans Derby meeting off a mark in the 90’s he will likely be a serious betting opportunity. 

30 minutes earlier at 2.50 the 5yo mare Time Loop has only her 4th run in the 10f Handicap. She did really well to win after a year long break at Wolverhampton and was then unlucky not to win under a penalty at Chelmsford in a slowly ran race.

Fallon was fully aware of the slow fractionals, accelerated early in the straight- the race seemed won – even as she drifted off the rail, – only for Billy Loughnane on Rastnet in receipt of 9lbs, then greedily gorging his way to 200 winners for the season, to nlp up the inside and steal a half length lead so close to the post that despite rallying Time Lock couldn’t get back up.

Inexperience and Loughnane signaling the quality that will make him Champion jockey, probably this season, had turned certain victory into defeat. 

The fact that Time Lock was a 4yo approaching 5 at the time wasn’t whisked off for maternal duties immediately after her first win strongly indicates that Haggas feels she is good enough to get black type.

The quality of the contest on Friday and her mark of 87 will mean she will have to show listed class level of ability to justify her position as favourite, although she is, like all of the Somerville Lodge runners in 2026 too date on the drift. 

Is she a betting proposition ? Probably not, whilst certain to have learned plenty in defeat at Chelmsford this is still only her 4th run and to win a Class 2 on her first attempt in a handicap from a mark of 87 looks a stiff task. Her lack of experience against several inform battle hardened rivals makes even that drifting price of 9/2 poor value.

If she wins we will have the chance to back her in listed company as she will then be more than ready to earn winning black type. 

A victory will also kick start the Somerville Lodge win machine into top gear as the search for ‘200 in 2026’ begins. There will plenty more betting opportunities.

On Saturday the remarkable record of Haggas in listed races at Lingfield during the AW winter season enters another chapter featuring the so far largely disappointing filly Wujjood in the Winter Oaks at 1.15.

Since the 2016 season Somerville Lodge has ran 29 horses in listed races at Lingfield sent off in the first 4 in the market. The results are sensational.

13 winners

12 placed 2nd or 3rd

4 unplaced.

Wujjood is 8/1 3rd favourite – but it is highly significant that Shadwell Stud who are reducing numbers have kept her in training for 2026

Keep an eye on the market as she may drift to be outside of the first 4 market principles. If she is supported in from 8/1 she will be worth a small ew bet, although this is not an official Hag Tag bet as I will take a watching brief, simply because she has been so disappointing too date.

Also declared on Saturday at Southwell is the maiden Lorna’s Waltz who bids to break her maiden tag in the Novice stakes at 7.00. Owned by the King and Queen one of the yards first winners of 2025 Purple Rainbow won a similar contest but this could be tougher with some very nice 2yo debutants in opposition. The daughter of Lope de Vega will need to improve considerably, on her debut run when despite being sent off 9/4 she was well beaten by 17L.

Refa Hag Tag January 2026 


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