Early Spring for Haggas filly – Not Yet !

A majority of the established owners that send horses to Somerville Lodge are owner breeders which puts great emphasis, especially with the fillies, for the yard , as a minimum, to win at least one race for connections.

Most are beautifully bred and expectations, quite rightly extend to obtaining black type. However both targets are easier said than done. Less than 30% of fillies that go into training win a race of any kind, with a figure of less than 5% developing the ability to add ‘black type’ to their pedigree statistics. Given the high quality of fillies sent to Somerville Lodge these numbers maybe marginally higher.

However, the potential for ‘black type’ at some point reaches a tipping point and the target of winning a race becomes the sole objective. The record of Haggas of doing this is exceptional. Once achieved, the fillies may immediately be sent to the paddocks, if the ‘black type’ potential is not considered viable.

One such, filly is the 4yo maiden Cerelia. Who runs in the Wolverhampton Novice Stakes at 1.42 on Friday.

A 410,000 euro yearling by Wootton Bassett out of a mare from a group winning filly, her purchase by Wathnan Racing, would have been made for both her race winning career and future broodmare potential.

Her racecourse debut was delayed and she wasn’t seen on the track until December 2025.

That run showed some promise and suggested there was scope for plenty of improvement. However, the next run 4 weeks later was not so encouraging with the post race commentary by Timeform.

‘Prominent, challenging over 2f out, led over 1f out, soon ridden and flashed tail, wandered around inside final furlong, headed final 110yds, lost second towards finish.’

Her third run in late January at Newcastle, seemed to highlight this regressive form, when although beaten by a useful Karl Burke debutant, her finishing effort in a slowly run race was very weak.

It looks likely, now as a 4yo, she has reached the ‘Tipping Point’ of black type potential with the target now any sort of win. Haggas is brilliant at achieving this goal, as was the case with Henrietta Ronner who won a handicap at Newcastle last week off a mark of 58.

From a punting point of view, whether its Haggas or any other trainer, betting on maiden fillies, on a downward performance spiral, is ill advised and it is another race to watch without financial interest, as we did, quite rightly, with Star Obsession at Kempton on Wednesday.

There are no further UK entries for the yard until at least next Wednesday 11th February.

REFA HAGTAG February 2026