Chrysalis Consortium

Transformational Betting for 2026

Quiet February continues…

Whilst activity at Somerville Lodge is increasingly busy with preparation for the Turf season – AW runners continue to be few and far between.

Only two declarations have been made up to Friday this week and both are on retrieval missions following disappointing runs earlier this year.

We highlighted the risks in backing maiden fillies with regressive form last week when Cerelia (11/8 to 4/1 at one stage) continued to disappoint in a weak maiden at Wolverhampton.

Star Obsession was also highlighted as a filly to be cautious about and she performed to a mediocre level at Kempton, showing only marginal improvement in finishing third, fitted with a hood, weakening inside the final furlong.

She returns to the course and distance in the 8f maiden at Kempton due off at 5.40, just a week later , minus the hood, and with Hollie Doyle replacing husband Tom Marquand as the filly only has 8’6′ to shoulder.

At face value this is a very weak maiden for the track and looks to be a good opportunity for her to get the all important win. However , with two or three of the opponents only needing to show a low level of improvement to finish in front of her, given her regressive profile, she is not a betting proposition, especially as the race conditions with the weight allowance will probably mean she goes off favourite.

In the Class 2 6f handicap at 7.10 Carbine Harvester steps back up in trip following a rare disappointing outing over 5f at Newcastle at the Winter Trials meeting.

6f around the bend at Kempton is much more suitable for the normally ultra consistent colt. Winning in Class 2 from a mark of between 88-90 (he runs off 88 on Wednesday) has proved to be just beyond him in the past.

From stall 7 Cieran Fallon will have dictate from the front and will be susceptable to the finishes down the centre of the track, which seemed favoured last week. He should make the frame.

REFA HAG TAG Feb 2026.


Comments

Leave a comment