A week of zero entries for Somerville Lodge sums up the reality that the 2026 AW winter campaign has been something of a token gesture, with the emphasis being placed on the Turf campaign, especially with the increased number of older horses staying in training.
It looks like Wiltshire will be the sole centre of focus on AW finals day on Good Friday. The 7yo ran another eye catching race at Lingfield Park over 7f on Saturday. This will have put him spot on for Newcastle over 6f on Good Friday and he will almost certainly be our next bet.
Dubai Honour and the, so far, disappointing Caviar Heights are off to Australia to compete in Group races and there seems no reason why Dubai Honour should not once again provide Somerville Lodge with another Group race success.
The Lincoln Handicap moves ever nearer with just five weeks now to the start of the Turf campaign. Bookmakers are fearing the yards entries and possible attempt at the big race that opens the season. It is understandable given the record in the race, but one word of caution they have only ran horses in 6 of the last 16 runnings. No horse has ran with a mark over 100, but those that do run are remarkably successful given the competitive nature of the contest.
Since 2010 Haggas has captured the prize 3 times. Godwinson in 2025 with an OR off 94, in 2018 Addeybb 99 and 2010 Penitent 98.
Only five other horses from the yard have taken part :
In 2022, three went to post. Mujtaba went off 3/1 favourite and disappointed only finishing 12th and Ametist the 6/1 next best finished last but was found to have bled and never raced again. The 3rd horse from the yard Irish Admiral ran a terrific race picking up EW money finishing 4th at 22/1.
It was no surprise that Mujtaba given time to recover returned to Doncaster later in the season and landed a monster gamble in another Class 2 handicap.
In 2018 Addeybb was sent off the 5/1 second favourite winning easily and then progressing to be a global superstar, winning several Group 1 races.
In 2015 Mange Too ran well to finish 5th at 13/2 and in 2012 Fury was 3rd at 8/1.
In 2010 Penitent ridden by Johnny Murtagh landed a huge touch backed into 3/1 winning easily by over 2 lengths.
Somerville Lodge houses two of the early market leaders Crown of Oaks and Eternal Force. Although likely to get his ground I would be cautious about the participation of Crown of Oaks. The race is normally won by horses with a mark in the 94-99 range. I suspect his place in the market is more down to the reputation of the owners rather than the horse. Haggas since 2010 has not ran a horse in the race with a mark of 100+ and remember the yard has only sent runners to the race in 6 of the last 16 runnings.
From 6 Lincoln’s contested since 2010, the record is 3 Wins, 1 3rd 1 4th 1 5th and 2 unplaced.
In 2026 based on the historic data, it is over 3/1 that any of the 4 runners entered will go to post. quite simply if they don’t come to hand early they won’t run. The 6/1 about Crown of Oaks is very skinny indeed with his mark of 104.
Of the other 3 Eternal Force, Sea Force and First Principle would all be serious betting opportunities if declared to run. At this stage it is no means certain and the Ante Post prices available are too short to take a risk.
REFA HAG TAG 2026
Chrysalis Consortium 
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