Back on the road – with some unraced maidens.

It has been an exceptionally quiet month at Somerville Lodge and there is no real change of gear as February ends with only a couple of unraced maidens being entered to run.

The first of those is a lovely looking grey colt Al Maslool by Dark Angel out of the former Richard Hannon trained filly Zurigha, who debuts in the 1m maiden the 3.52 at Lingfield on Saturday.

Regular followers will know that no matter how well horses are bred, running first time under the Haggas name are not betting propositions. Despite the overriding data that confirms, that doing so, is a road to the poor house, invariably the bookies will introduce the debutants into the market at short prices. Many will even be shortened, until in a majority of cases they will drift to prices that reflect the reality, that they will normally show considerable improvement for the race.

Some do win, usually because the race is full of equally inexperienced rivals that turn out to be average horses. Occasionally, it will be that the horse is exceptional, as is likely to be the case with the Autumn debutant winners My Ophelia and Extremely Zain.

Having mentioned the unreliability of the market when assessing the chances of the Haggas newcomers, once it has settled down towards off time, it still remains the best guide, although not by any means faultless.

In the past 6 seasons Somerville Lodge has sent 11 unraced 3yo’s to post on the AW tracks in February and March. 3 have won, ( that is a high strike rate at this time of year). 3 were markets leaders – 2 won at 2/1 and 2/5, the other winner was the surprise package and something of an outlier winning at 7/1 but progressed to be a group level filly.

The general rule that the better maidens, if running on the AW tend to go to Wolverhampton, Newcastle or Southwell applies in February and March.

The chances of Al Maslool not making a winning debut on Saturday at Lingfield Park are supported by the fact that not since February 2016 has the yard won with a 3yo debutant in February or March at the track

It is possible this turns out to a weak race or that he is exceptional, the on course market will provide further clues, however, it looks a very strong maiden for the time of year and the judgement call is that he is a horse to watch with the future in mind.

REFA February 2026.