As readers of this blog were forewarned the slow start on the AW in 2026 for Somerville Lodge extended from 1-20 in January to 0-6 in February. This follows the pattern of the last 2 winter campaigns in the opening months of the year, in 2025 the record in February was 1-4 and in February 2023, 0-9.
If Haggas decides to target a campaign on the AW, as was the case in 2017 when from 20 runners in January, February and March they sent out a remarkable 14 winners. That sort of AW Winter campaign plan now seems consigned to the history books.
The slow start to 2026 was put into perspective by the news of the untimely death of Economics at the age of 5, whilst on stud duties in India. The horse ranks among the best trained at Somerville Lodge and will be greatly missed, by new and former connections alike.
Onwards to March – don’t expect any fireworks on the AW, with only 1 winner in the last two seasons from 14 runners.
The expected % winners to runners immediately kicks in on the Turf at Doncaster with the ratio of 4 winners from 14 runners over the last 10 years and 2-2 in 2024 and 2025.
Monday features the reappearance of the 5yo Dramatic Star whose career to date has promised plenty but delivered little , on occasions through no fault of his own.
As a 3yo he was fully expected to win a Class 2 handicap at Haydock going off the heavily backed 3/1 favourite, only to slip badly on false ground causing him to be pulled up.
He was given time to recover from that misfortune and on his return was sent off favourite again , this time, in the valuable Melrose Handicap at the York Ebor meeting, only to disappoint, looking like he hadn’t fully recovered from his experience at Haydock.
Dropped in trip and tried on the AW in October, he confirmed that he was a well handicapped horse winning far more easily than the 1/2L winning margin and he went into the 2025 season in many’s peoples notebooks as a handicapper to follow from a mark of 89.
Due to minor setbacks the gelding didn’t reappear until the Shergar Cup in July, where he ran a race full of promise to be beaten just 21/2 lengths in 6th place, in a race that wasn’t ran to suit.
Another attempt on a big Saturday Handicap followed this time returned to Haydock in the Old Borough Cup, he looked certain to win before being collared close home by stablemate The Reverend. The ground that day seemed to greatly favour those drawn away from the far rail and as he drifted across to that part of the track, it was almost certainly the difference between success and defeat.
He was put in as short price favourite for the Autumn Cup at Newbury but drifted due to the rain softened ground and in the wake of a mighty (unsuccessful) gamble on stable mate Castle Cove. He disappointed, finishing out of the prize money.
Two further runs followed on the AW. At Kempton he was held up in a slowly race over 2m and was not placed to challenge . At Southwell in November he failed by a sh hd to beat Haku in a race where if it was ran again 50 times he would win all 50.
In his career to date, he has been sent off favourite in 3 valuable ‘Saturday’ handicaps over a 1m4f+ in the calendar, and despite failing to win any finds himself of a career high mark of 94 on his 2026 reappearance on Monday.
This is a horse that Haggas has decided to keep in training and there are grounds for suggesting he may be ready to win first time out, as he runs well off a break.
However the history of the Haggas horses on the AW in March suggest otherwise. In the last 10 years there have only been 3 winners from 20 to run at Kempton Park and they were sent off at 3/1, Evs and 8/13.
On balance, unless there is a significant market move, close to the off, for Dramatic Star, this is likely to be a run in preparation for a race targeted in the months ahead.
Dramatic Star 4.37 Kempton Tuesday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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