As Karl Burke develops a new powerhouse of racing at Spigot Lodge in North Yorkshire, the challenge for William Haggas at Somerville Lodge to maintain his excellent strike rates in Group races and major handicaps becomes increasingly difficult.
2025 saw a record number of winners; however, significantly, the returns from Group races—especially international contests—were low in comparison to recent years. The season started with another Group 1 success by Dubai Honour in Australia’s Tancred Stakes, but that proved to be the peak. It was followed by largely disappointing runs from well-fancied runners across the globe, highlighted by a series of unfortunate events and poor luck with stall positions in France.
There were some terrific highs, notably the improvement shown by Merchant and More Thunder, who both progressed from handicap company to Group race successes.
While the 2-year-olds were notably backward, late autumn and All-Weather winter victories by My Ophelia, Maltese Cross, Sober Strike, and Extremely Zain offered classic-winning potential for their 3-year-old careers.
From a HagTag punting perspective, 2025 was certainly profitable with above-average returns. However, results fell short of expectations following the St Leger meeting in September. An overly cautious approach led us to miss three significant handicap winners: Binhareer, Crown of Oaks, and Castle Cove, with the latter two being particularly frustrating.
These missed opportunities will serve as a blueprint for a more lucrative 2026. Much like the Haggas yard, we will shift our strategy toward targeting major handicaps, and Group races, placing less emphasis on trying to extract profit from unexposed 3-year-olds as they transition from novice ranks to their initial handicap marks.
2026 BET No 1
Horse: First Principle
Race: Wolverhampton 8f Class 3 Handicap (March 20th)
Selection: First Principle (10/3 Early Price)
First Principle was one of three stable entries for the William Hill Lincoln on March 28th. Currently priced as the 25/1 outsider of that trio, his 2026 campaign began with a highly promising second in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton. He split two high-class rivals that day: finishing behind Andrew Balding’s The Lost King, while staying on ahead of the ante-post Lincoln favorite, La Botte (James Eustace), who finished fourth.
This four-year-old has been a “slow burner.” Despite winning on his two-year-old debut, he spent over a year off the track. His return was marked by immaturity; he went off at 1/2 at Thirsk ( finished 2nd) and 1/12 at Windsor, refusing to settle in both despite the weak opposition.
The breaking point came at the Doncaster St Leger meeting. Stepped up to Class 2 company off a mark of 88, he again failed to settle, finishing a disappointing 8th of 10. The yard reacted decisively, and he was gelded immediately following that performance.
The operation had the desired effect. Returning to the All-Weather under a superb ride from Joanna Mason, he landed an 8f Southwell handicap at 9/2. He signed off 2025 with a narrow, arguably unlucky, defeat at Kempton, but without doubt running with plenty of hope for the future
His 2026 debut in the Lincoln Trial was a “blinder.” Despite being fresh and forced to set his own fractions, he stuck to his task off a mark of 93. While that run buoyed hopes for the yard’s big-handicap prospects—particularly for stablemate Eternal Force—the decision to skip the Lincoln for this £35,000 Class 3 prize is telling.
Dropped back to Class 3 company and remaining on a workable rating of 93, he holds a clear class edge. While stall 10 is far from ideal, this is exactly the type of tactical challenge Tom Marquand excels at. He is likely to use his gate speed to cross the field early, given his previous tendency to be keen.
The “Lincoln” Clue: Usually, when Haggas pulls a well-handicapped horse from a major target like the Lincoln to run in a Class 3, it’s a “maximum confidence” move to pick up a guaranteed pot before the handicapper intervenes.
With main danger City Of Poets returning from a significant break and Bosman tackling this track for the first time off a career-high mark, the path is clear for First Principle to get the Haggas “win bandwagon” rolling.
Recommendation: The early price of 10/3 represents solid value for a horse clearly ahead of his current grade.2pt Win BET
Result and Reflection
The winter of 2026 was bleak for Haggas followers with only one surprise winner from 31 runners but this was expected by Hag Tag followers and the season was ignited when our first bet of the year was duly landed, providing the yard with a second victory.
Marquand as expected was up with the pace and provided a master class of jockey ship holding off all challengers to win by a neck.
The horse will only go up a couple of pound for the win to a mark of 95 and the valuable Thirsk Hunt Cup on 2000 Guineas Day could be the target. Haggas won a version of the race in 2018 with Original Choice who had a very similar profile to First Principle with winning form at Wolverhampton.
REFA HAG TAG 2026.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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