While the Lincoln is often viewed as a “lottery” due to the maximum field size, a closer look at historical data reveals a remarkable success story for Somerville Lodge. Haggas has won the race in total 5 times but it is the performance levels over the last 16 years that require close inspection. During this period, William Haggas has contested the race on only seven occasions with 11 total runners, winning the race on 3 occasions.
Performance History:
- 2025: Godwinson (Won) 15/2 – Going: G/S | Draw: 3 | OR: 94
- 2023: Al Mubhir (5th) 4/1 – Going: Hvy | Draw: 10 | OR: 97
- 2023: Montassib (u/p) 11/1 – Going: Hvy | Draw: 11 | OR: 98
- 2022: Mujtaba (u/p) 3/1 – Going: G/S | Draw: 3 | OR: 97
- 2022: Ametist (u/p) 6/1 – Going: G/S | Draw: 13 | OR: 94
- 2022: Irish Admiral (4th) 22/1 – Going: G/S | Draw: 1 | OR: 97
- 2018: Addeybb (Won) 5/1 – Going: Soft | Draw: 10 | OR: 99
- 2015: Mange All (5th) 13/2 – Going: Good | Draw: 7 | OR: 97
- 2012: Fury (3rd) 8/1 – Going: Good | Draw: 9 | OR: 98
- 2010: Penitent (Won) 3/1 – Going: Soft | Draw: 1 | OR: 98
With most firms now offering Each-Way (EW) terms of five or six places, backing all 11 Haggas runners would have yielded a return in all seven years. Based on 1/5th odds for a 1pt EW stake, the strategy would have returned over 35pts—an ROI exceeding 50%.
Historical Context and Yard Form In 2023, Al Mubhir (5th) was slightly disappointing on the day but, like Mujtaba in 2022, gained compensation on his next start by winning a valuable Class 2 handicap. Montassib failed to stay the 1m trip—a persistent concern at the time—but since being returned to 6f, he has become a yard star and a Group 1-winning sprinter.
2022 was the outlier year, as the only time the yard sent three runners. The 3/1 favourite Mujtaba disappointed but didn’t run again until returned to Doncaster in September to land a Class 2 handicap off the same mark. Ametist, who finished last, was found to have bled, and it proved to be his final race. Conversely, Irish Admiral (22/1) ran a superb race to finish 4th. Ironically, the race was won by the 50/1 outsider Johan, who had been trained by Haggas the previous season.
In 2018, Addeybb landed the spoils as the second favourite, foiling a major gamble on Lord Glitters. This proved to be a stellar renewal, with both horses developing into multiple Group winners. Similarly, the 2010 winner Penitent landed a monster gamble (3/1 fav) before contesting Listed and Group company off marks as high as 115.
The Haggas Lincoln Profile The profile of these runners is remarkably consistent. Of the 11 runners:
- Handicap Form: 10 of 11 (excluding Fury) had won at least one handicap the previous season (8 of 11 had won two).
- Experience: All had 8 runs or fewer.
- Rating:All were clustered between an OR of 94 and 99.
2026 Outlook Given these statistics, it is no surprise that Eternal Force is the current favourite. He ticks every box for a Haggas-trained Lincoln plot. Given the high percentage of yard runners hitting the frame, the current 6/1 will likely contract significantly as the off approaches.
There is a suspicion that he may not go off favourite with a very strong word for the Britannia Stakes runner up La Botte, who had an eye catching prep run in the Lincoln trial at Wolverhampton. He is clearly a threat but there have been many horses given the kid glove treatment by Jamie Spencer that don’t have as much in reserve as seemed likely and the ability to see out a strongly ran mile on Town Moor is paramount.
Stamina to see out the trip is also a question mark against the next in the market Rogue Diplomat, whose improved form over this course has been at 7f.
From the moment he won so impressively at Haydock in October Eternal Force had Lincoln contender written all over him. His previous win at Newbury was noteworthy for the huge market drift from 7/2 to 10/1 when he surprised connections by his ability to handle soft ground. With Tom Marquand in Australia Cieren Fallon, who has been riding brilliantly over the winter, takes the ride. He can be backed with significant confidence.
Whether, he will go on to match the heights of the 2018 Lincoln winner Addeybb is highly doubtful but win or lose on Saturday he is a horse with a big future.
Recommended Bet
2pt EW Eternal Force 6/1 – 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 places.
REFA Hag Tag 2026
Chrysalis Consortium 
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