Over the period from the start of the flat season in late March until the end of May, the Haggas team will send out a large squad of unexposed 3yo’s in Maiden and Novice events. Most will be future winners, ranging from Group 1 down to Class 6, but backing them before they have won is often based on unconfirmed rumours, big race entries or high class pedigrees.
In past year’s I have dabbled in backing some that I believed were value bets even at relatively short prices-however here is why this year I will not back any Haggas runner in a Novice or Maiden throughout the season and that will later in the summer include unraced 2yo’s.
Over the past four seasons the yard has sent out 142 3yo’s in these type of races during March and May that were sent off in the first 4 in the market – they yielded 33 winners – a perfectly acceptable strike rate but producing a level stakes loss of over 27 points. Backing all runners, including those at bigger prices, increases the runners to 176, with no extra winners and of course considerable increased losses to over 61 points.
The meeting that stands out as the clear indicator for future winners is the Newbury Greenham meeting in Mid April. Economics, Bullet Point and Crown of Oaks being prime examples after running in Novice events at the track.
One meeting that is an outlier for Somerville Lodge 3yo based maidens and novices likely to win, is the first Salisbury meeting in May. Since 2023 6 horses have been sent to post with 5 winners. (Maybe the one time to break the No Bet rule in Novices and Maidens !!)
This weekends racing at Doncaster rarely sees the yard contest the Novice and Maiden events with no runners since 2022 and only 6 this century.
The one winner was the unraced Maljoom who was sent off at 15/2 and two runs later was a very unlucky loser of the Group 1 St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot !!
That SP for a horse, that 2 runs later contested a Group 1 is noteworthy, let’s not forget Baaeed went off 4/1 on his debut in a moderate Leicester Novice Stakes, despite big race entries, the SP has little bearing on the debut run. On Saturday the St Mark’s Basilica colt and Epsom Derby entry Super Crown is a rare newcomer to feature at this meeting on the Town Moor in the 10f Maiden at 4.05.
There is a fair amount of hype about the Haggas 3yo’s this year but nothing in recent history suggests that he has changed his reluctance to prepare immature horses for the Blue Riband event on the first Saturday in June.
On breeding there is also a doubt the colt will stay 12f in any case. That’s not to say he couldn’t be a potential Group 1 horse but that is unlikely to be known until after the race.
Neither , the Derby entry, a short price and or market move would convince me to back this horse at Doncaster. That being said I hope he wins with his head in his chest and we have another high quality horse to follow
Super Crown 4.05 Doncaster Saturday No Bet
Another newcomer Rebel Legend also debuts in the same race and this will also be a No Bet with an eye to the future.
Chrysalis Consortium 
Leave a comment