When William Haggas declares a horse to contest a Musselburgh handicap its never just there for the run and whatever way you look at the stats in handicaps with horses sent off 1,2,3 in the market his strike rate at the track is just under 50%. This decade it is 4 from 9. A look at the 5 beaten horses. provides clear evidence that it should be even higher.
The latest horse to be beaten in June last year was Regalion who went down by a nose having traded at less than 1.1 on the exchanges. No excuses he simply put the brakes on when he hit the front and despite being in front one stride before and one stride after the line he lost the verdict on the nod.
In June 2024 Highland Spring was beaten 50L and reported to be lame by the course vet.
In April 2023 Mystic Pearl finished 4th at odds of 7/2 in a 1m Class 4 handicap running from a mark of 78. There was heavy rain throughout the day turning the track conditions to Soft. She was never again asked to run under those conditions again and finished the season with a rating of 102 after winning a listed race and finishing third in a Group 3 contest in Deauville.
In June 2022 Nathanial Green, was held up at the back of the field in a Class 3 12f handicap. He finished 4th in a race that was run at a crawl and could never get into contention. 2 runs later he beat the future Group 1 winner Giavellotto in the Class 2 Bet 365 Handicap at Haydock off the same mark !
Finally, in June 2021 in a Class 3 7f Handicap Yazaman was beaten just under 2 lengths finishing 2nd after ducking left leaving the stalls and hanging left all the way up the home straight. Two runs later he was transferred to the yard of Robert Cowell.
All of the winners have been improving 3yo’s but on Sunday he sends the 4yo Sea Force with a rating of 95 to contest 1m 1f Class 3 0-95 handicap at 5.15.
The gelding will be the highest rated horse he has ever sent to the track and the first 4yo in a handicap since two ran in June 2016 one of which Dynamic Won a Class 3 handicap over a mile.
With the greater emphasis on older horses this year this is not a surprise and having been pulled out of the Lincoln Haggas confirmed the plan for the horse was to run here and then ‘follow up’ in the Class 2 Heritige Handicap at Newmarket on Guineas day – a race last year won by stable mate Bullitt Point who also had a Lincoln preparation but didn’t take up the engagement.
There is no Ante-post market for that race which is a shame as I would have started backing him before Sunday. If he wins he will carry a 5lb in the Newmarket race in just under 3 weeks time.
He ended last season winning a 1m handicap on Soft ground at Yarmouth off a mark of 89 with a ton in hand and the handicapper was extremely lenient putting him up 6lb to 95. He would have won a handicap at Ascot on the Round course had there been any sort of pace he also ran well at Goodwood and he clearly can run to form either left or right handed.
11 line up against Sea Force but nearly all are well exposed older handicappers running off career high marks or over a trip that looks far from ideal. If there is a danger it’s possibly the duel course winner Thunder Wonder who will force the pace and was the beneficiary of Regalion’s reluctance to go by last season.
The ground is just on the soft side of good which is ideal and with plenty of pace Cieren can settle him in and come with a winning run down the centre of the course. Haggas has said he likes to come off a strong pace and that looks certain to be the case here with 4 or 5 pacesetters in the field.
Two of those Thunder Wonder and James McHenry are drawn in 6 and 8 with Sea Force perfectly positioned in stall 7 to track them through.
Given no misfortune in running I fully expect Sea Force to gain revenge for the defeat of Regalion and provide us with a 3rd winning bet of the season from just 5 horses backed. This is our first recommended 3pt bet of 2026.
I appreciate that 11/4 -5/2 looks skinny but I remember last season getting the same price for Crown of Oaks in a Class 4 handicap at Redcar and he was withdrawn because the forecast rain didn’t arrive. A week later he Won a Class 3 at Ascot at 8/11 by over 6L. !!
Sea Force is not the only classy Somerville Lodge in mate in action on Sunday with Arabian Force returning to action in the Prix Lord Seymour Listed race over 12f the 4.25 at Longchamp, ridden by Christophe Soumillion.
He probably should have won the Group 2 Great Voltigeur at York in August where they decided to hold him up last in what turned into a sprint finish and he couldn’t quite peg back the Dante winner Pride of Arras and the Queens Vase winner Carmers. He did though finish in front of the Derby winner Lambourn and three other Ballydoyle runners.
He was also a desperately unlucky loser at Hamilton when beaten a Nose in the Glasgow Stakes and was possibly over the top when slightly disappointing when third on his final start as a 3yo over 14f in the listed Noel Murless stakes at Ascot finishing 3rd when beaten just over a length in a messy race.
The feeling has always been that he would not be at his best until his 4yo season. On seasonal debut he has a bit to find on ratings with the Graffard trained Group 1 winner Map of Stars and the race fit Andrea Fabre runner Marquisat.
However it would come as no surprise were he to run a mighty race and start off a great hour for his connections who also own Sea Force.
Overall, as I think he will just be better for the run , I will watch with interest with a view to getting financially involved in the weeks ahead.
Sea Force 3pt Win 5.15 Musselburgh Sunday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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