The future in mind during important trials week.

Followers will know the key word at Somerville Lodge is patience – with horses in training at the yard given ample time to fulfill potential.

The year on year success we achieve following the master trainer is based on folllowing clear patterns that have been developed over 30 years plus, but also being able to adapt when unusual circumstances occur.

2026 is a year when I expect some of the patterns to be disrupted given a greater reliance on horses aged 4 and above, this has been verified by an unusually low key period on the AW during the winter months, and a slow start with the 3yo’s – too date have been in need of their initial outing.

The Craven and Greenham meetings are core pivots that the season develops from and whilst the slower start for the 3yo’s will mean less betting opportunities over the next 7 days , the importance this period will have on the season remains.

The performances of Weheedd and Bintsaleh on Saturday provided evidence that the 3yo’s are about to strike winning form but I am going to remain cautious for a further week in respect of backing any of the yards inexperienced 3yo’s at the two big trial meetings.

Past evidence, irrespective of how forward the young horses are, provides the reasoning.

In maiden and novice races at both the Craven and Greenham meetings over the past 10 years 53 runners have produced 9 winners and a level stakes loss of 19pts. 25 of those have been sent off 1 and 2 in the betting which resulted in 8 winners and less than 1pt profit. Given the fact this years crop are not well forward it makes no sense to get involved and break our ‘No Bet in Novice and Maiden Race rule.’

3yo handicaps can usually be a very fruitful betting medium during this week. However there are two key factors. Firstly, the horses that win have generally had a previous run on the AW during the calendar year and secondly they are very well backed usually into favoritism.

There have been 12 attempts at 3yo handicaps across the two meetings- 3 at Newbury and 9 at Newmarket.

The 4 winners were all at Newmarket – Power Fizz, Art Market, Mohaafeth and Educator – the first three had a prep run on the AW and Educator was a well backed 11/4 favourite.

Of the 8 losers only 1 was sent off favourite that was Tafreej who was third on soft ground that proved to be unsuitable for the horse as his career progressed. He didn’t have a prep run which was the same with the other 7 horses that didn’t win.

The record with older handicappers over the past 10 years is also impressive 4 from 10 with another 4 in the frame.

There seems no concern that the horses need to be well backed and backing all 10 shows a 26pt profit.

In the Guineas Trials Group and Listed events there have only been 2 winners since 2019 both in the John Porter Group 3 at Newbury by Hamish and Al Aasy. With Constitution Hill set to take on Al Aasy on the forecast good ground it will be a race I will watch this year.

The other 3 winners were spread across various Guineas Trials before 2020 and with no pattern it makes sense to watch this week’s very promising horses in the trials with future opportunities, in mind.

The Craven meeting kicks off on Tuesday and with relatively few April showers in the forecast the prospect of Good ground, maybe on the faster side looks assured. The same looks more than likely for Newbury at the weekend but with the prospect of Constitution Hill running on Saturday the ground there will be maintained to be Good. That’s bad news for Hamish fans.

Somerville Lodge starts this important week at Newmarket on Tuesday with a single runner Hardy’s Hero in the Class 4 3yo handicap at 3.00.

The son of New Bay has been gelded since its last run and will attract interest mainly down to the Haggas factor, unless that support turns into a major gamble into a well backed market leader I will not get involved.

He has not had a run on the AW and in a race which contains 5 last time out winners it has the look of a minefield for punters.

Plenty more interest on Wednesday with the likelihood of our first bet of the meeting.

REFA HAG Tag 2026