Somerville Lodge sends out 5 runners on Wednesday, 3 at Kempton and a couple at Carlisle. All 5 have clear chances to maintain or improve the current strike rate in September.
in the first 7 days there were 27 runners producing 9 winners and another 6 placed 2nd or 3rd. Focusing on the first three in the market has resulted in 8 winners from 18 and a 45% strike rate.
The horses in handicaps this month that have drifted in the market Proposal, Time Loop, Sharp Move, Al Maslool and Luminaire were all beaten.
The 2yo’s on Tuesday ran as expected and the NO Bet advice on all 4 runners was correct .The two debutants Far Away and Inkjet were sent off 9/2 and 17/2 probably half the odds they should be and at Goodwood Al Qayed improved significantly from his first outing to finish 3rd at 22/1 he seemed to enjoy the very soft ground. As expected Gaspacho needed the race at Leicester and the drift from 11/10 to 7/4 on the off was significant.
I must re-iterate when the trainers name Haggas is next to a horse making its racecourse debut it is a negative in terms of winning . A performance like Sharadd at Haydock is very much the exception to the rule. The last one to do something similar was Extremely Zain at Newcastle in December 2025.
I will be surprised if any of the five declared on Wednesday are outside of the first three in the market and a third treble in 7 days is on the cards. I tend to put half my stake on at early prices and then top up nearer the off time. Ideally at this time of year I prefer them to be well backed close to the off and head the market.
In the nursery at Carlisle First Performer is an intriguing entry given a mark of 72 under the new rules after just 2 runs. Both were on fast ground the second on the notoriously firm July Course. He was backed from 5/4 to 4/7 and that simply doesn’t happen with a Haggas trained 2yo unless significant improvement is expected after a promising debut run. He was all at sea on the ground and couldn’t cope with the lightning speed of the newcomer Crown and Two who subsequently demolished another Somerville Lodge 2yo Bulletsnap at Windsor.
I expect there to be plenty of support again for Fast Performer and anticipate him being the market leader on the off at around 2/1.
Bet 2pt win Fast Performer 2.42 Carlisle Weds
James Doyle William Haggas and Wathnan Racing are 2-2 at Carlisle and there is every chance Flagbearer can maintain the 100% record in the maiden at 3.47. His run at Hamilton was boosted by the winner who was an unlucky loser in the Class 2 handicap at Ascot on Saturday and there must be a good chance he can improve past Blue Hercules who sets a good standard but can’t win a race. James Doyle travels to Carlisle for this ride only.
The market will again be very informative and I will watch how it develops before deciding on whether to back Flagbearer
Bet – TBA
Over at Kempton three runners all of whom have outstanding chances but in each case have one unknown quantity in opposition that makes things tricky.
In the maiden at 5.30 Venetian Sky really should have won at Leicester when she was held up off a slow pace on very fast ground and was asked too late in the day to peg back the leader. Her mark of 76 suggests that she has something in hand of her rivals on Wednesday,
However, the Kubler trained the Billy Loughnane ridden Mercantile showed a great deal of promise on his debut and could be an 80+ rated colt.
Significantly he is owned by Isa Salman Al Khalifa (Economics owner) and a major force in racing in Bahrain By Night of Thunder out of a Fastnet Rock mare he is related to the Gosden trained Theory of Tides and the ex Haggas trained Regalian both of whom were far from straight forward.
It is another race where I will see how the market develops before getting involved. Apologies for any followers where this creates difficulties but the market surrounding these maidens is crucial. Her opening price is 2/1 If she is that price or shorter close to the off I will probably have a 1pt win Bet
BET – TBA
A similar story with another maiden Yimmna in the Kempton 7.30 who looks to have only the George Boughey runner Enchanted Queen to beat. She was recently sold by Goldophin and only joined Boughey from Appleby at the end of August. She has clearly had problems and could well need the run. If that is the case Yimmna should win her first race. However the form of her first three e=runs is not working out at all well. A third race where I want to assess the markets before getting involved but she is probably the most risky betting proposition from the 5 going to post on the day the 4/1 first show confirms this opinion.
Bet TBA
The most appealing horse from a tracker perspective on Wednesday comes in the last race of the day the 6f Class 4 contest at 8.30.
After his eye catching run at Thirsk Art Lover is high on my list of Haggas horses to back and the quick turn around after being dropped a 1lb more than suggests the yard see this as a winning opportunity. There may only be six runners but 4 of them Bintaryana, Augustus Gloop, Old is Gold plus Art Lover have potential to be better than their current marks. There are possible attitude issues with Augustus Gloop and Bintaryana runs off a career high mark but Old is Gold hacked up at Goodwood on Tuesday afternoon and will be a short price if he turns out again and if in the same form will win.
Art Lover on the evidence of his Thirsk run in an all age handicap, can win off this mark. That run was boosted when Yes I’M Mali won at Ripon beating Kinda Touch who came from Art Lover’s first run of the season at Chester. If Old is Gold is a non runner I will look at the race again on Wednesday afternoon.
Bet – TBA
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