On Wednesday Fast Performer completely lost the plot at Carlisle and he faces the unkindest cut of all very shortly. It was confirmed that already suffering this fete was Saber Strike who following the gelding operation has been transferred to George Scott and will have a winter campaign in the Middle East.
Fast Performer was the only Haggas horse on Wednesday that didn’t drift markedly, on a day when the influence of the market on Somerville Lodge runners was again emphasized.
Thursdays racing at Doncaster features a couple of noteworthy runners from Somerville Lodge.
Had King of Earth not ran in the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York on his last run he would have been 3/1 instead of the 15/2 available initially in the Ante-Post markets. After Sunday’s treble that didn’t last long and he is now back into 9/2.
His win in the 9f Premier Handicap at the Curragh at the end of June off a mark off 85 is very strong form with plenty of winners coming out of the race.
After the race Tom Marquand was quoted as saying the win was ‘very straight forward and the victory was never in doubt’. His run in the ‘Strensall’ was very ambitious but it backfired badly as he became upset in the preliminaries and refused to settle in the race, eventually beaten 20L by his ex stable mate Archivist.
I thought that he was likely to be gelded but he remains a colt. His mark of 92 is well within his scope, the big question is will he focus on racing?
The draw over 10f at Doncaster is usually neither here nor there and if Marquand wants to make the running as he did at the Curragh stall 3 will help. Ryan Moore gets on Bourbon Blues who has strong form and the next 3 in the market Besieged, Knights Charge and Runman are unexposed and all have good chances.
The Haggas record at the St Leger meeting with 3yo’s sent off market leader reads 1 even money winner from 5 runners. With all 3yo’s in handicaps at the meeting it is 2-18 and a Level Stakes loss of 13pts. Those stats together with the fact that Silver Lake on Friday looks much more likely to improve the record confirms that I am not backing King of Earth.
Bet – No
In the sales race at 1.50 God Given Talent, so promising at York in a Nursery on his first start for Somerville Lodge, has a fair amount to find with the front four in the market which is dominated by Night In Vegas who is clear on ratings and has already won a similar contest at Newmarket.
The next three highest rated are no more than 5lb ahead of God Given Talent After York I was keen to back him in Nursery company off a mark of 91. It is not hard based on the York run to envisage the he can improve more than 5lb upped in trip and he has a better chance than the 14/1 odds imply.
His run when 6th in the Rose Bowl beaten just over 4L by Arapaho Gold was officially rated 87. The 5 in front of him are now rated as follows Sale Shark 105 + 16, Agamemnon 104 + 15 Social Symbol 96 + 7 Nabati 104 + 4 and Arapaho Gold 110 + 18.
His mark of 87 was the reason his next run at York was in a Nursery, after that unlucky eye-catching run he is now 91. There is a case to say that he should be upgraded at least another 7lb based on the form of the Rose Bowl. That would put him 2nd best in on Thursday only 4lb behind Night in Vegas.
Haggas is throwing the dice at this big prize – his record in the race from just 5 previous runners is 1 Win 3 2nd and 1 u/p. That offers plenty of encouragement and with the 2yo’s finally coming into form I have had a ew interest at 14/1 (4 places) and topped up at 11/1 ew on Wednesday evening.
God Given Talent is well drawn in Stall 17 against the stand rail- on good to soft and good ground high numbers are better than low. When Room Service won in 2023 from stall 1 he ended up on the stand rail.
The market leader Night in Vegas from Stall 6 is probably going to have to deal with the errant The Dancing Pirate who from stall 1 is likely to hang towards the centre of the track and create problems for the horses tracking him.
Bet 1.0pts EW God Given Talent 1.50 Doncaster 1-4 places
At Epsom in the Class 5 fillies handicap at 4.52 Wild Dahlia has a good opportunity to gain her first win of the season in the 8f+ handicap. She had run well at Redcar after nearly a year off. Three weeks later she was sent to Hamilton in what looked a winnable opportunity and was well backed to do so but she never got into the race and was disappointing. Maybe she ‘bounced’ after Redcar and back down into Class 5 she has a good chance of winning. I think she is a good price but that poor run at Hamilton has left me with too many doubts – I won’t be backing her.
Bet – No
The 2yo Quite Cheeky debuts in the Epsom 2.00. She is almost certainly going to be better as a 3yo with experience of the racecourse as a 2yo under her belt.
Bet – No
Finally Lady Rosalind is put into an AW Nursery the 2.40 over 6f at Lingfield. After showing great promise when winning at Ripon she has taken two backwards steps and was well beaten in both races. The mark of 73 is based on the Ripon win and it looks harsh on her subsequent form.
Bet – No
Chrysalis Consortium 
Leave a comment