With up to 50mm of rain forecast for the Ayrshire coast next week there is a high expectation of a Soft or possibly Heavy ground Ayr Gold Cup meeting which will be the focus of attention for Somerville Lodge over the next 7 days.
I took advantage of a wet weather forecast for Haydock over a week before the Betfair Sprint when we got 8/1 about the 9/4 Haggas trained winner Almeraq and we can repeat the success this time with Binhareer currently available at 8/1.
There will be a huge field and the draw will play a key role but if the forecast is right and the draw is half decent he will go off 7/2 or shorter. Haggas also has Thunder Call who is 10/1 but on Soft ground Binhareer will be the stable’s No 1 choice, after his unlucky run in the Wokingham, the Ayr Gold Cup has been his main target.
He should have won at York on his first outing but like so many of the Haggas handicappers he has been inconvenienced by the fast conditions for the rest of the summer. Quite frankly I have found it amazing at the level of support he has received running on Good to Firm ground this season.
Part of the reason why this has been the 4yo’s main target is that off a mark of 90 last year on his preferred soft ground, he should have won the race but was never placed to challenge. After missing the break and getting going far too late – 3 weeks later at York on good ground he bolted up.
He will have to race off a 13lb higher mark this year but confidence remains very high. The key to this years contest looks to be the Wokingham where despite getting blocked in his run and on Good to Firm ground he was beaten under 3L. Tom Marquand was convinced he should have won the race. As was the case with Almeraq, Binhareer will also be 7lb better on soft ground.
He is better off at the weights with those that finished close up at Ascot and if the forecast is right he will take all the beating.
Recommended Bet 1pt EW Binhareer 1-4 places Ayr Gold Cup 8/1
Saturday we completed the 2 out 2 3pt Bets at Doncaster when More Thunder duly followed up Silver Lake’s win on Friday.
The meeting was tinged with frustration at missing out on the gamble on Scoville in the Class 2 8f handicap. After 30 consecutive losers in Class 2 4yo+ handicaps this was a Haggas plot of the highest order. Two runners in the race with Marquand booked on the ‘more fancied’ and the biggest factor of all the market move for Scoville from 15/2 into 5/1 and Bullet Point drifting to the same extent.
When this happens I realize I shouldn’t complain when the bookies cut Somerville Lodge runners en mass – once again the master has had their pants down – hopefully I will spot the next one.
Only 4 runners have been declared at Doncaster and the Curragh on Sunday.
Lilt heads to the Curragh for the Group 2 Blandford Stakes after a disappointing run in the Prix de Diane in June, although the fast ground and wide draw were mitigating circumstances. This is not a strong race bar Thundering On the Epsom Oaks winner also on the comeback trial after a break since she disappointed in the Irish Oaks.
There have been very few Somerville Lodge runners this season to return to form after disappointing runs Extremely Zain and Power Fizz excepted, and Lilt is best watched in the hope that she runs up to her best and becomes of interest in the Autumn.
No Bet Recommended
Arabian Force takes on Scandanavia on the Irish St Leger at 4.35 on his first run after being gelded. He is a big price at 33/1 especially if the operation brings out further improvement. When at his best he should have already been victorious in at least one of either the Great Voltigeur or Noel Murless stakes. He has bypassed a couple of very winnable opportunities this weekend to take a shot at this Group 1 and he can outrun his odds.
1m 6f on good ground looks ideal , he is unlikely to beat Scandinavia but the 9/1 without the favourite 1-2 places is good value and I have had a small interest.
0.5pt EW Arabian Force 9/1 ew 1-2 without Scandinavia 4.35 Curragh
Finally at the Curragh in the closing Class 2 Premier handicap at 5.45 High Degree again heads the market, although at a price of 8/1 after being returned less than 2/1 on each of his last seven outings winning on just one occasion.
His rating has been pushed up to 95 and races off a career high mark but so do the other 7 runners at the front of the market. He probably didn’t stay the extended 12f on soft ground at Goodwood on his latest run.
Although, the Summer of 2026 Class 2 4yo+ handicap hoodoo was broken by Scoville yesterday. High Degree looks far more exposed and I am not getting involved.
No Bet Recommended
Only one runner at Doncaster where Zooming will have to show huge improvement on her 3 outings this season to get involved in the finish of the class 2 3yo handicap at 2.30. It can be argued that 2 of those runs over 6f and a mile were over the wrong trip. This will be her first outing since June so the fast ground may also have been an issue. She is 14/1 and on the slide and cannot be considered as a betting opportunity unless, of course, she gets cut to around 4/1. !!
No Bet Recommended
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