By Frankel out of the dam of Waldgeist the Arc winner Crown of Crowns must be one of the most valuable fillies to be in training at Somerville Lodge. That pedigree suggests that she is going to need cut in the ground, which may partly explain why she is only making her debut on Monday at Windsor in the 3.12 1m4f maiden at the back end of her 3yo season.
However, it does not alter the fact that as with all Haggas trained debutants her potential to win first time out is guesswork. Her pedigree will not impact the way she has been trained although it will determine her progression as a first win and then if she has the potential the addition of black type to her page will be vital.
The 1m4f novice is not a strong contest and if she were to run to a mark of 80 it would probably be good enough for her to win. However, I will never back a Somerville Lodge horse first time out. Approximately 1 in 8 win – breaking that number down based on available odds, the following prices would need to be available to represent value based on Market Position:
1 = 3/1 2 = 5/1 3 = 7/1 4+ 14/1 or bigger.
Over the last 6 seasons the 2yo win strike on debut is 12.5% the 3yo’s 15%
it is very rare based on these facts that value odds are available and I therefore simple ignore all the 2 and 3yo debutants for betting purposes.
No Bet Recommended Crown of Crowns
Song of Clouds is a filly that has already secured a maiden win and reappears after a break of 130 days in the Windsor 2.42. By Night of Thunder out of a Cape Cross mare already the dam of the Group 2 and 3 winning colt Mighty Ulyesess. Her future is secured however the quest for Black Type looks a realistic opportunity based on her initial racecourse appearances.
The softly softly approach is being taken by Haggas keeping her to Novice Stakes company – that hasn’t really worked as she faces a colt with even greater potential in the guise of Wootz who was given an RPR of 99 following an impressive 6L win at Ffos Las on his debut, that had stakes winner written all over it.
The Wathnan owned Journalism is a debutant that could be ‘anything’ and this is a race to watch for the future.
No Bet Recommended Song of Clouds
A 2yo being given time to grow into a possible stakes horse is Majestic Jude who faces just 3 rivals in the 7f Novice Stakes the 3.12 at Thirsk.
His Newmarket win was boosted by the success of Al Jabber in the 25,000 Class 2 maiden at Doncaster. The form of the Newmarket race is looking very strong after yesterday and he will be odds on to follow up under a penalty.
No Bet Recommended Majestic Jude
In the Thirsk 4.51 Fractional is an example of filly that no matter how well bred simply cannot perform to expected levels on the racecourse. She is a half sister to the same owners group race winning mare First Instinct.
By Frankel she has shown a distinct lack of desire to settle in her races and was beaten two outings ago at Chepstow at 1/3 on. Her latest run at Ripon was more promising beaten by Prosperity a useful newcomer trained by Karl Burke colt who followed up that win under a penalty. Those two runs have caused the handicapper to drop Fractional 13lb to a mark of 70 which enable’s her to get into this class 5 contest.
She seemed more amiable towards racing in the Ripon race and there is a solid case to be made that the fast ground conditions on the undulations of Ripon and Chepstow were far from ideal.
The handicapper has taken a chance and Haggas is a master at getting wins out of this type of filly. It looks like Monday is the day or no day and I want to have a small interest in backing the Somerville Lodge team with the aid of the handicapper to have unlocked the door leading into her first win. I have just seen the opening price of 11/4 which is half what I wanted . She is not reliable to back at those odds
No Recommended Bet Thirsk 4.51
Two runners head to post on the AW at Kempton starting with the ultra disappointing Pure Majesty in the Fillies Novice stakes at 7.00pm. She comes from a family filled with high performing sprinters including Sky Majesty, Democracy Dileema and Angel Alexandra that have the ability to perform at a rating of 100+ but also throw in the odd inexplicable bad run. From her two outings so far Pure Majesty has only shown the latter.
She has not looked like she has enjoyed anything about racing in her two runs, but Haggas will at some point find the answer. If that has happened on Newmarket Heath since her last run at Yarmouth it is possible that she will win on Monday. It is more likely that additional time will be needed and off a handicap mark given after hopefully a more positive run , she will be ready to race to her potential.
No recommended Bet Pure Majesty
In the 6f 3yo Novice stakes that follows at 7.30 another superbly bred filly Encore aims to break her maiden tag on her 3rd racecourse appearance. By Hello Youmzain out of a Dansili mare that has produced Lope Y Fernandez and Dark Vision a first win will be extremely valuable. She was very green last time out at Windsor her first run for over a year. That should have taught her enough to win this weak contest. With the odds likely to be short, I will watch in the expectation that initial success will be secured.
No Bet Recommended Encore
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