I distinctly remember at the end of September 2016 commenting that Somerville Lodge would never better the total of 36 winners in the month.
They certainly haven’t come close yet with the total for September last year of 26 the closest since.
Due to the training methods used by Haggas the Autumn months are likely to be the most successful, and because of the long hot summer of 2026 there is a lot of ammunition left to fire.
At this point in September 2016 the yard had recorded 20 wins which compares to 18 this year. There appears no reason why the momentum will not be maintained and the fact 10 runners go to post across 3 Wednesday cards suggests the record can be broken. From a punting perspective I think one stands out but such is the form of the yard, they could easily get another two or three winners and altogether- definitely three possibly four are worth a bet.
No joy with our sole bet on Tuesday as Creative Queen seemed to resent the blinkers on for the 2nd time and was a no show.
I have analysed all 10 in race time order.
First up at 2.20 is Hierax ridden by Hector Crouch for his retainer’s Valmont in the Novice Stakes over 7f at Sandown
I have always found Sandown 2yo races very difficult to calculate although the Haggas record is OK (13-61) and 2 from 3 this season. Wednesday’s contest looks full of unexposed well bred horses with big yards and it is a race I want to watch without financial interest.
Verdict No Bet
Another novice Divine Rhythm debuts in the 3.06 at Yarmouth. As always with debutants I have no interest in backing him and on breeding he has the look of a colt who will be better as a 3yo.
Verdict No Bet
The enigmatic Crown of Oaks is on a recovery mission in the 3.30, 10f listed contest at Sandown. He is 16/1 in the early markets which reflects the inept performances he has produced so far. In the first of those he badly needed the run and was outclassed in a Group 2 at the Curragh.
He was dropped into handicap company here at Sandown when he ran better than reported, after being given tender handling throughout the contest and allowed to come home in his own time. After pulling through the early part of the race he was beaten 8l but the margin could have been halved had he been ridden out. He is on a mark of 103 and I am certain that he is being targeted at a big Autumn handicap, I have had a small interest in the Ceserawitch at 25/1 but that looks unlikely now.
He is up against it taking on Cerro Blanco on Wednesday but I expect him to take another step forward. I have no doubt he remains a horse that can land a big prize this Autumn.
Verdict No bet
in the Yarmouth 3.41 Haggas is double handed in the 10f Listed race throwing two darts at Black Type with Rhapsody and Orionis. Although as we discovered at Doncaster on Saturday Tom Marquand is not always aboard the stable No 1. I think he is on the right one in this race, Orionis has a lot to do on ratings.
Rhapsody ran really well at York behind Prizeland who was heavily backed to win the Group 2 Park Hill at Doncaster but failed to stay the extended 14f. Prizeland would be well fancied if she had lined up in this contest.
Rhapsody won’t mind the soft ground and will, as always, give it a good shot. It is though a very strong event for the class, with the Gosden’s throwing three darts, and the big yards of Crisford, Boughey, Walker, Fanshawe and Beckett also taking aim- it is a race normally to be found at the major festivals.
It fits in the locker of ‘very difficult to solve’. Rhapsody is as short as 9/2 which is very short and includes a big slice of ‘Haggas Tax’
The data confirmed it is a race to watch without an interest. In the past 25 years Haggas is 0 from 16 attempts trying to win the race with the 2nd of Anna Swan in 2025 the nearest he has been to a victory with only 2 others in the first three.
Verdict No Bet Rhapsody and Orionis
The next three races at Sandown are Class 4 and 5 handicaps with fillies very much the focus. Luminare at first glance appears to have a tough task from a career high mark of 77 despite having not won a race from 6 attempts this year. She has been largely consistent finishing runner up in three of those races. Her last run at Southwell although yet to be tested may well turn out to be very strong form.
The winner The Third Star looks to be much better than a Class 4 handicapper and was raised 6lb for the win. It was a slowly ran race and Luminare who was held up probably ran a career best.
Because it’s Sandown and there are 12 runners the first impression is she is not well handicapped enough to win this. However, a deep delve through the runners suggests that only Oh Yes You Do from the David Menuisier yard, 0-63 and no winners since June has a better chance.
Luminare is better on turf than the AW and she will be a good price. The Sandown hill is an unknown but with the yard in such great form she is worth an each way poke with 4 places likely to be available.
Verdict – Recommended Bet 0.5pt ew Luminare 4.05 Sandown
At Yarmouth in the extended Class 3 handicap at 4.12 Masked Warrior attempts to follow up the win in this race last year by Sea Force.
Since being given a mark of 88 following a 4L win in a poor Kempton maiden I have had the opinion that the 3yo is badly handicapped. To a large extent this has proved correct and on his last outing he was well beaten at 6/4 in a weaker Class 3 at Ripon.
Haggas has ‘pulled the rabbit out of the hat’ with similar types before but Masked Warrior has only been dropped 1lb despite three losses in the three handicaps he has contested and he is easily passed over from a punting perspective.
Verdict No Bet
On the subject of ‘pulling rabbits out of hats’ the entry of Desert Treasure in the 5f all age handicap at Beverley suggests ‘Haggas the magician’ may have some tricks up his sleeve.
On her last run dropped to a mark of 75 and into a Class 5 contest on the AW at Lingfield, after being very disappointing in all her runs this season, she was unlucky to be beaten in a photo finish in a race she would have won in a couple more strides. It proved she had trained on and was likely to win more races.
The 5f track at Beverley is the polar opposite to 5f on the AW at Lingfield and yet on Wednesday Haggas has chosen to send the filly, his only runner at the Yorkshire course, to contest the 0-80 contest with Oisin Orr on board, who has not ridden for the yard since May. Beverley is the UK turf track where Orr has been most successful over the past 5 years with a 19% strike rate. That increases to 24% in the current season ( 8-34) with 21 of his rides in the first 3.
The Haggas Beverley record is 8-15 over the past 3 seasons and he has only sent 1 horse since 2008 to contest a 5f handicap. That was in July 2024 when the filly Persian Blue, ridden by Oisin Orr from stall 7 landed a nice gamble from 7/2 to 2/1.
It is safe to assume that Desert Treasure is working really well and the ‘magic man’ has got her back to her best. On form she has a tough task but this looks like a well thought out plan and she is worth a punt
Verdict Recommended Bet 0.5pt ew Beverley 4.18
In the Sandown 10f Class 4 handicap at 4.40 Brighton Beach fits the profile of an improving Haggas trained 3yo filly and is the days best bet. She ran a great race on her handicap debut at Goodwood, unsuited by the slow pace she was the first to come under pressure but battled on really well and although only finishing 4th she looked the best horse in the race.
Her pedigree provides ample evidence that 10f on good ground is fine, although there is every chance she will stay further. Her sire was a dual winner at the track and there is lots of stamina on the dams side. That will come to the fore as the forecast pace is strong which will suit her better than Goodwood. Perfectly drawn in Stall 3 Fallon can get her well positioned in the early stages and seize the initiative approaching the final furlong.
The handicapper has left her mark on 73 and she has scope to progress and win races in the high 80’s. I can see her running up two or three wins this Autumn if she maintains her form.
Verdict 2pt win Brighton Beach 4.40 Sandown
The last but not least of the ten is Caraway due to run in the 4.45 at Yarmouth ridden by Harry Davies carrying just 8’6′.
I say due to run because last week I thought the filly was a ‘shoe in’ in a Class 6 at Epsom on forecast Good to soft ground, the same as Yarmouth on Wednesday but she was withdrawn because of the ‘going’. Soft Epsom ground on the undulations as shown by this years Derby can be attritional and in the end Haggas didn’t chance it.
The race on Wednesday is Class 4 – so a lot tougher than Epsom but nevertheless I believe that Caraway is another extremely well handicapped Somerville Lodge 3yo filly ready to win again.
The form of her Thirsk win in May from a mark of 58 has been boosted on numerous occasions. She beat Boilermaker in receipt of just 5lbs and on Sunday the Roger Charlton trained colt completed a hat trick of wins taking out a Class 2 handicap at Bath off a mark of 74.
Caraway has only had three more runs, failing to defy a penalty at short odds over 14f at Nottingham where on Soft ground she failed to stay, and the an extra-ordinary attempt to win 2 races within 24 hours at Leicester and Yarmouth.
The races were almost mirror images. both featured small fields on each occasion she was a short priced market leader and in both races she finished 2nd after being held up too far back and unable to catch the front running leader who had been given an easy time from the front.
Understandably she has been given a break of 8 weeks to recover but she was dropped a pound and looks more than capable to cope with the step up to a grade 4 and although I will wait to see the market just before the off if she is not weak I will invest in her potential to be a lot better than a 63 rated filly.
Verdict 0.5pt ew Caraway 4.45 Yarmouth
Summary of Wednesday Wagers
0.5pt ew Luminare 4.05 Sandown 1-4 places 15/2
0.5pt ew Desert Treasure 4.18 Beverley 4/1
2.0pt win Brighton Beach 4.40 Sandown
0.5pt ew Caraway 4.45 Yarmouth 5/1
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