Haggas Six Shots on Thursday.

After 10 Blanks on Wednesday. !!

A woeful Wednesday when the 3yo fillies couldn’t cope with tacky drying ground facing stiff up hill finishes. It was an error on my part as it was perfectly predictable and although we had small stakes on 3 of the runners it doesn’t make it less of an error. The yard was 0-10 on the day and only Crown of Oaks ran well. Our 2pt bet Brighton Beach was all at sea ( excuse pun) when asked to make up her ground and summed up an expensive day.

It is the time of year when the Somerville Lodge trends go through the roof when supporting runners sent to the Yorkshire tracks. The market does not miss them. The Haggas record at Pontefract in 2024 and 2025 in September and October from horses sent off 1,2,3 in the market reads:

W,2,W,2,2,W,W,W

On Thursday he sends a couple of runners to his native county and Venetian Lion can complete a hat-trick in the Class 4 handicap at 4.45. The son of St Marks Basilica is out of the remarkable mare Forest Crown, now aged 19 she has produced 10 horses that have got to the track including Venetian Lion all 10 have won. 8 have achieved an official rating of 95 or higher. Venetian Lion is currently rated 76 which strongly suggests he has plenty of scope for improvement and neither the rise of 4lb from his latest win or the move up in grade to Class 4 will be of concern.

He tackles older horses in a handicap for the first time but they are all well exposed and running to handicap marks that offer little scope for improvement. The draw in 9 could be better but there looks certain to be a strong pace set by Garden Oasis, Freddie Steady Go and Zowal who all have to front run. The Haggas Pontefract stats in the Autumn ensure he will be heavily backed and he really should win and continue to climb the ladder with further successes likely this season and next.

Verdict : 2pt win Bet Venetian Lion 16.08 Pontefract.

Cieren Fallon is on board Venetian Lion and also rides Fan Me for Haggas in the mile maiden at 3.38. Fallon should have an excellent day at a track on which he excels, his strike rate is 33%, and he could easily come away with another 3 winners with several rides on fancied runners for outside stables.

Fan Me is returning to the track after a break of over 400 days and on balance is unlikely to be one of them. She was very green as a 2yo and was pulled up on her second start. In recent weeks all the Somerville Lodge fillies returning after a break with the exception of Lilt have needed the run and I expect Fan Me to fall into this category.

Verdict : No bet

The focus of attention at the Ayr western meeting has a big emphasis on the Saturday card . This year Darzah in the 2.30 10f handicap is one of only two Somerville Lodge runners on the first two days of the meeting. This is not unusual in 2024 there were none.

On form she will have every chance but she is unproven over 10f and on Soft ground – with persistent rain forecast throughout the day that looks very likely to be the underfoot conditions by the time of her race.

Verdict :No Bet

Finally there are 3 horses running at Yarmouth. In the 6f sprint at 3.45 Art Lover and Another Abbot both take their chances. 30 minutes later one of this seasons cliff horses Divine Knight reappears ( again) in the Class 4 14f handicap off a mark of 80.

Tom Marquand has chosen to ride Art Lover in the sprint and he has looked a horse on the up on his runs this year. The problem from a betting perspective is the drying ground at Yarmouth is seemingly against those drawn on the stands rail and he has drawn stall 12 of 12 Another Abbot is in stall 10.

There is uncertainty about the amount of rain forecast during tomorrow and I will watch without investing.

Verdict : NO Bet

Finally the dreaded Divine Knight. He has been sent off as the market leader in 4 of his five races for William Haggas since joining the yard at the start of the season from Sean Woods. Rated 86 he is down to 80 following defeats at 9/4, 7/4, 5/4 and 7/4. Having been the subject of significant market support.

On each occasion there have been valid excuses ‘trip too short’ ‘ground too fast’, ‘didn’t act on track’. On Thursday he is ridden for the first time by Tom Marquand and I have no doubt that the likelihood is he will be well supported again with conditions, track and trip looking ideal.

The dilemma is do I back him? The answer is no – as with a majority of the yards older handicappers the stats this season, scream out that at likely odds of around 2/1 or less its makes no sense. The two recent horses that bucked the trends Power Fizz and Scoville were both available at 8/1 or bigger which justifies the risk with the better ground conditions a reason for a return to form. The record of 4yo+ Haggas trained horses in Handicaps since July 1st is now 5 -39 ( 12%) – hence why the 8/1 is a minimum price needed to back one in the near future. No matter how painful it will be to watch should Divine Knight decide to bolt up on Thursday he will not be carrying any more of my cash.

Verdict No Bet