Haggas Friday Refresh

The busy week has taken Williams Haggas followers on a roller coaster journey that began with a 4 timer on Monday followed by 14 consecutive losers on Tuesday and Wednesday and then 2 winners on Thursday.

It was great that Venetian Lion won as easily as I predicted today after I had made several mistakes yesterday. It was also nice that we didn’t get involved in the beaten favorites Darzah and Fan Me.

Divine Knights win was, of course slightly frustrating, but he got a great ride from Tom Marquand, which made the difference together with the drop in grade.

Friday looks a good day to take a pause before the big day on Saturday when Binhareer bids to bring home a second Ayr Gold Cup to Somerville Lodge. With his main two market rivals not declared and a low draw, he looks very likely to go off at around 3/1 as we predicted, when we backed him at 8/1.

A team of 5 head to post on Friday and with the ground only getting softer at Ayr and faster at Newbury it feels like a day to watch and reflect without investment.

The most likely winner on the day is Diplomata who heads to follow up her Haydock Nursery win of a 10lb higher mark in the opener at Ayr at 1.20. She was visually very impressive at Haydock when she overcome trouble in running to win going away from two rivals that re-oppose on Friday.

That race was ran at a furious pace and that may not be the case on Friday. There is a live danger in the form of Motown Filly whose form on the only time she faced cut in the ground on her debut at Windsor gives her a big chance first time in a nursery off a mark of 77.

The Richard Spencer team of 2yo’s are flying and his yard target the Ayr Gold Cup meeting. Diplomata is short enough and the threat of Motown Filly is sufficient for me not to bet in the race.

Verdict : No Bet

Hope in Havana makes his debut in the 2yo Novice the 1.47 at Newbury. Regulars will know my rule of never backing Haggas horses on debut. So a watching brief as always is advised.

Verdict No Bet

Sweetwonderfulyou runs in the Newbury 7F valuable conditions race at 2.22 but has a tough task up against 2 Goldophin fillies that head the market.

There is a possibility of a slow pace which won’t suit the daughter of Starspangledbanner and it looks hard to oppose the Appleby horse that heads the market.

Verdict : No Bet

Also at Newbury in the Nursery at 2.57 Next Of Kin is not badly treated off a mark of 77. The Haggas record at Newbury in Nursery handicaps is 4-17 with 3 runners up. This looks a very open race with half the field unexposed and with the potential of being well handicapped. She is 9/2 in the early market where the first five in the market are all around 4/1 or 5/1. On balance it looks too tricky.

Verdict: No Bet

Finally the mission to get a win out of Evening Fades continues at Wolverhampton in the 7.15. She has been dropped to a mark of 60 which entitles her to run in lower grades than this class 5. I suspect that is what will be needed for her to get that all important win.

Verdict No Bet.