The weekend at Ayr got off to a very good start for the yard when Diplomata defied a huge drift to win at 5/2. Had I thought for a moment that would be her price she would have been a recommended as a bet.
As I anticipated the return to quick ground at Newbury did not help the 3 2yo’s. They all ran fairly well and will have another day.
This decade William Haggas has sent 10 horses to contest 12 Listed and Handicap races over 5f and 6f at Ayr. Pink Crystal ran twice and on Saturday Binhareer will be the first to run three times.
The breakdown of how they have ran in the 12 races provides the explanation as to why once soft ground seemed certain last weekend, the 4yo Binhareer was an outstanding bet at 8/1 to give Haggas a second win the in race.
4 of the 10 have been sent in search of Black Type in Listed races over 5 and 51/2 furlongs.
The first was the mare Dancin inthe street she accompanied Nahaarr and 4 others on the trip to Scotland to the Western meeting in 2020 to contest the 5f listed race.
She had been desperately unlucky that summer and should have won at least 2 Class 2 handicaps before disappointing at York in her race before Ayr.
That misfortune seemed to take its toll after the poor run at York she again ran flat at Ayr and was sold to be trained by Paddy Twomey, but never won another race.
However, she has already excelled as a brood mare producing Inner City Blues the Goldophin 2yo unbeaten in 2 races and to the fore in the market for the 2027 2,000 Guineas.
Pink Crystal won a 5f fillies listed event in 2023. She was followed by First Instinct in 2025 who got some Black Type finishing 2nd but Kinswoman this year was unsuccessful.
Two horses have contested Ayr sprint handicaps – Almeraq and Binhareer both winning easily before Binhareer’s unfortunate run in the 2025 Silver Cup.
Only three Somerville Lodge horses have contested the Gold Cup this decade.
Nahaarr, landed a huge gamble in 2020. at 7/2 he was the shortest price winner of the Ayr Gold Cup this century. A furlong out he must have been 100/1 on the exchanges. He had been blocked in his run 3 times and eventually found a gap well inside the final furlong and made up 4 lengths to win by 1/2 length.
It was a remarkable day for Tom Marquand who before that September meeting had never rode a winner at the track. One hour earlier he had won the Doonside Cup on Addeybb and after the Gold Cup completed a memorable treble when Johan won the Class 2 handicap.
On the same day Aplomb was unfancied at 18/1 and ran down the field in the Silver Cup
Like Binhareer, Nahaarr is sired by Dark Angel and as a 3yo won a Class 4 handicap from a rating in the 70’s progressing as a 4yo to win the Ayr Gold Cup off a mark of 100 – Binhareer runs off 103 on Saturday.
There were no Somerville Lodge runners in 2021 but Khanjar contested the 2022 Gold Cup as a 3yo sent off at 9/2 but it proved too much for him racing on ground softer than he had previously faced – he disappointed finishing 20 of 24.
In the 2023 running Montassib was 5th at 10/1 beaten just over a length on ground that would have been plenty fast enough for him. Binhareer will be the next horse to represent Haggas in the race.
Wiltshire will join Binhareer on Saturday but since landing a fantastic gamble for us at Newcastle in March he has become very unreliable. and his price of 33/1 reflects his chances.
After that defeat in the 2025 Silver Cup Binhareer produced a performance that ear marked him as a future 100+ rated sprinter. From a mark of 89 he pulverized a high quality Class 2 field at York being awarded a Timeform rating of 106+ winning by nearly 3l unchallenged.
On his first run this season, he was raised 10lb to 99 he was desperately unlucky not to win back at York making up 6l on the winner in the final furlong failing by only a neck. The handicapper assessed him as though he had won and he was put up to 106.
He took his place in the Wokingham sent off the market leader in what looked one of the strongest runnings of the race in recent history and on fast ground that Haggas has always said was against him, he finished 6th beaten 3l. After the race Marquand was adamant that he was an unlucky loser as he was checked at the point he was engaging top gear.
He next ran in a Group 3 at Newbury where on even faster ground he was still backed in to be the 5/2 market leader. The ground was clearly an issue and he was tenderly handled. Somewhat surprisingly he was dropped by the handicapper to a mark of 103.
Towards the end of last season when discussing the development of his best horses, Haggas was quoted as saying that ‘most are predictable but occasionally a horse ‘like Binhareer’ comes out of left field’.
Flourescence won the Listed race on the straight course from Stall 2 on Friday in exactly the way I expect Binhareer to win from the same draw on Saturday.
If he wins as expected on Saturday and comes out of the race well – there is every chance he will take up his entry in the Group 1 Champions Sprint at Ascot. No one believes he can beat Almeraq but if Binhareer gets soft ground he will run well, considerably better than his current odds of 50/1 suggest.
Verdict: Already Advised 1pt ew Binhareer 8/1 Ayr Gold Cup
Six other horses go to post on Saturday. First up in the 1.02 at Newbury is the mare First Instinct , who tries to win the Group 3 race for a 2nd year, on the back of a disappointing performance at Naas on her last run.
She has failed to reproduce the form of her win in 2025 and only once, at York in July, come close – a repeat win will further boost her paddock value but on the balance of her outings this year she cannot be backed to do so.
Verdict: No Bet
In the two Newmarket handicaps at 1.50 and 2.25, Thaluna and Hardy’s Hero attempt to win for the first time in 2026 after a combined 10 previous attempts.
Both are running well but have flattered to deceive – as a result the handicapper has kept them largely on unchanged marks and they do not appeal as clear betting opportunities in low grade but competitive races.
Thaluna was expected to win off her mark in the low 80’s this season and she has a decent chance on Saturday. However, since the Silver Lake victory at Doncaster the 3yo fillies have ran poorly, especially those returning from a break. If you can look at the market pre-race if she is significantly supported she would be worth a small interest.
A similar stance can be taken on Hardy’s Hero. He is owned by Tim Bridge a great friend of William Haggas and significant market support for his horses rarely goes wide of the mark.
Verdict: Thaluna 1.50 Hardy’s Hero 2.25 Newmarket No Bet ( But watch for significant market support)
The 2yo Iron Stone Lad debuts in the 15.20 at Newbury.
Verdict: No Bet Recommended
The 950,000Y Super Crown runs for the second time at 4.55 the 10f novice at Newmarket after a debut in March at Doncaster.
He will be better for the race and irrespective of market support, as was the case, with the filly Fan Me today he will not be a betting proposition.
Verdict: No Bet
That is also the case with Weffaag in the 5.55 at Newcastle, he is likely to be very short but that doesn’t make him a bet.
Verdict: No Bet
Chrysalis Consortium 
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