An intriguing Derby Day where the forecast rainfall and the ground conditions remain uncertain.
However we are committed to our Ante Post bet on Ruling Court at 5/1. lets hope he runs better than Desert Flower.
The Guineas form is by far the best on offer and if he stays he should win. It is the only horse the powerful Godolphin team have entered in the contest and he remains a potential superstar.
William Haggas is not a lover of Epsom and his record there is poor by comparison to other tracks. He only sends one runner to the track across both days and that is Sam Hawkens in the 12f handicap at 4.15pm.
We landed a nice touch on the 4yo at Newcastle but this contest is as trappy as you can get and combined with being drawn 17 of 17. I will watch not bet.
45 minutes later at 5.00pm War Hawk for the Crisfords who landed some nice bets for us at Chester last weekend can follow up. I was really impressed with the way he was able to lay up with the pace and then quicken up to win well in a manner that suggested the ups and downs of Epsom will be no problem for the colt.
He is up 5lb in what on paper is a Class 2 but the top weight in this 0-100 has only a rating of 89 so in effect this is pretty much a class 3.
On breeding there is a chance that Soft ground will suit him well and he is well worth a bet at odds that should hold up at around 6/1.
For our only other bet on the day we head north of the border to Musselburgh where Regalian can bring back the Edinburgh Cup due off at 3.50 back to Newmarket for William Haggas and Cieren Fallon.
The form of the 3yo’s first run of the season at Newbury has worked out really well and he did really well to finish 3rd having been forced to run wide on a day where the stands side rail was favoured (remember Ides of March)
This step up in trip should suit, and William Haggas boasts a 40% strike rate with horses starting 1,2,3,4 in the betting in handicaps at the track. He also has a great record with horses running in blinkers for the first time which is the case with Regalian on Saturday. He has also been gelded since Newbury.
I did contemplate making this our next 3pt Haggas bet but with lingering doubts about the weather i have decided to stick with a 2pt recommendation i also think it will be short at around 2/1 which is no reason to increase the bet size – in fact it could drift.
The yards only other runners on Saturday Magic Box in the 6.00 Chepstow and Camtank in the 6.07 are works in progress and are for another day.
Onto Sunday and our next 3pt bet from the Haggas yard.
Goodwood has saved its best race of their two day weekend fixture Friday evening and Sunday until the penultimate race the Listed Tapster Stakes at 4.45.
My biggest bet of the 2024 flat season was on Hamish on his last outing as an 8yo when the stable favourite was introduced at 6/4 in a listed race at the Curragh on his favoured soft ground. On his previous run he had been second in a Group 2 race at Longchamp beaten just 1/2l by the King George winner Goliath. He duly hacked up by 5L.
Hamish returns to Goodwood for his belated debut as a 9yo delayed due to fast ground and with plenty of showers forecast along the Sussex Downs on Saturday he will return to the track on his favoured soft ground.
There is some serious opposition in the line up but nothing comes close to Goliath and Hamish who after a break of more than 60 days has Won 6 of his 7 races – the only defeat coming behind Kyprios at the Curragh.
Because of his age we will get a better price than if he was younger but I am assured he is showing no signs of deterioration and he has to be our next 3pt win bet from the Haggas yard.
The yard run three in the listed fillies race at 3.35 Anna Swan, Rhapsody and probably the pick of the trio Purple Rainbow. However none of the three are proven over 10f and i suspect black type is the main goal.
It a day when the focus is on Hamish and i expect the old warrior to make it 6 from 6 winning 3pt bets for us from the Haggas yard in 2025.
Saturdays and Sunday Diary of a Season Bets
Previously advised Ante Post 2pt win Ruling Court 5/1 3.30 Epsom
2pt win Regalian 3.50 Musselburgh
1.5pt win War Hawk 5.00 Epsom 6/1
0.50 pt saver Meblesh 5.00 Epsom 6/1
3pt win Hamish 4.45 Goodwood Sunday
Russ Diary of a Season June 7th
Chrysalis Consortium 
Leave a comment