A quiet week so far where, as at 5.00pm Friday we have have hit a 100% strike rate 3 out of 3 with our Haggas bets, the only other two bets from outside yards were beaten but on all five we have easily bettered the SP.
On Thursday Hornsea Bay ran really poorly in one of the Racing League races having been heavily supported from 3/1 -2/1.
We readily made that up on Friday with Magic Stone 2/1 – 11/10 and Another Abbot 4/1 – 3/1 both collecting.
This week the yard has had 5 winners from 10 runners. One of those First Principle won at 1/10 the other winner we weren’t on Concert 13/8 was involved in a vey unsatisfactory race and market at Yarmouth.
It is equally pleasing to put up No Bet Recommendations for the 5 losers who were sent off at 4/1, 7/2, 10/3, 7/4 and 5/4.
Onto a quiet Saturday ….
The Shergar Cup is a meeting that i don’t get heavily involved in.However, It is an event that the Haggas team targets.
This year the organisers have somehow managed to down grade the event and it surely has a limited life span .
The bookmakers really do think punters are ‘mugs’ pricing all six races up before the jockeys have been allocated to their horses.
That does though lead me to a possible edge we may have now we know who is on board.
The last 9 William Haggas runners in the event over the past two years have all been unplaced.
His overall record 5 from 29 is not bad, although not good by Somerville Lodge standards.
Three of those were favourites and all 5 ridden by UK based jockeys Jamie Spencer(2) James Doyle (2) and Keiran Shoemark (1). When ridden by overseas riders all 10 have lost with only one placed in 3rd.
However a deeper dive into the data provides a far more positive angle.
19 of the 29 were sent off 1,2,3 in the market including the 5 winners. If you then take out the nine of those 19 ridden by overseas riders that brings us to a point where we have a definite edge angle as follows:
‘William Haggas trained runners in the Shergar Cup sent off 1.2.3 in the market ridden by Uk based jockey’s strike rate 50%’
Although the Japanese rider Miral Iwata who is based at the yard for the summer has drawn Dramatic Star in the 2.45 for my only bet on Saturday I am going to stick with the stats and give us a chance of redemption, with Hollie Doyle being drawn on Treasure Time in the last at 4.30.
Drawn 6 on the round course over a mile is ideal and maybe the luck that has deserted the horse and connections this year has changed.
He was set the task of winning the Royal Hunt Cup on debut without a prep race in order to preserve his handicap mark of 94. He was balloted out by 1 in that contest and also his alternative engagement in the Balmoral Handicap at the same meeting.
I made the biggest betting mistake of the season having a 3pt bet on him at Sandown two weeks later, assuming he would be at the same level of fitness as for Royal Ascot. Of course they had to let him down and there was very little chance he would be firing fully just 14 days later.
He ran a very respectable race on what turned out to be his first outing that promised much more to come. At Goodwood his target was the Summer Mile only to be drawn in the car park a test that was avoided due to being withdrawn following the biblical down pour the course suffered on the third day of the meeting. He was however declared on the Saturday in the handicap that closed the card.
Again drawn wide he was never placed to challenge and had little more than an exercise canter at the back of the field.
I am not surprised he runs again so quickly and ideally placed in 6 and with Hollie Doyle coming out of the hat to take the ride, he must surely go close here off a reduced mark of 93 given the confidence that was behind him to win the Hunt Cup without a prep. This is though a tough test.
It is questionable whether he will go off in the first 3 in the market, although i will be very surprised if Miss Information goes off shorter so i will take the ew position this evening with 13/2. available On a Saturday where opportunities are limited he will be my only bet of the day.
Recommended Bet 1pt ew Treasure Time 4.30 Ascot 13/2
Tenability will go off at a short price in the 3.55 but ridden by Delphine Santiago, who has no experience of Ascot and i will not be getting involved.
No Bet Recommended
Only two others go to post on Saturday at Newmarket the very well bred 2yo filly Proposal goes to post in a field of unraced horses. As always watch don’t get involved with a Haggas debutant even when the market moves positively.
There was another small gamble on Back to Black on Thursday at Sandown, which never ceases to amaze me because when the horses do win on debut it bears no relation to the SP !!. The strike is about 12% with horses first time out so the minimum price you should take, if you must have a bet, is over 8/1.
No Bet Recommended
Finally Alibey races for the 4th time on the 5.47 at Lingfield. The step up in trip will suit her but she looks slow to my eyes and i wouldn’t want to take short odds in a race that looks very hard to assess
No Bet Recommended
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