Could we have backed a few more of the yards weekend winners ? Probably, but it is easy to forget the yard sent out nearly twice as many losers than winners on Saturday and Sunday
We didn’t back the heavily supported, Dubai Honour, Crown Prince and Sky Majesty who were beaten.
Of the winners we let Crown of Oaks run as he was always odds on.
The Reverend beat stable mate Dramatic Star defying ground that had they realised how quick it was , would have been withdrawn. The feeling is that Dramatic Star would have won had he not raced on the slowest part of the track.
The winner we missed was Valiancy I knew that he was being prepared for a big Goodwood handicap at the Qatar festival sponsored by owners Wathnan. He didn’t run as he didn’t get high enough in the weights because he failed to win two handicaps he should have won easily.
The cheek pieces were fitted and that was enough to make the difference to a horse that I had too quickly written off as one that didn’t want to win.
He was impressive also running on the slowest part of the track and should win again especially if upped to 2m.
The win of Abloom was proof that when it’s your day – things just go right . The filly drifted from 3/1 to 6/1 before being backed in to 2/1 purely due to multiples on Haggas horses running up.
She broke well and although setting very slow fractions was allowed to run at a funeral pace for the first 3 furlongs gifted a lead of 2-8 lengths on the field . The race was over after 1 furlong.
I am certain any of the eight runners in the race handed that advantage would have won. It was a dismal example of race riding by all the jockeys apart from Marco Ghiani who could not believe his luck.
On Sunday Elmonjed capitalised on the fall of Almeraq. The day was epitomised by the gamble on the second string Rhapsody in the fillies handicap that was matched by the drift on Seren Star the choice of Ceiren Fallon.
I cannot recall this happening in recent memory on two runners from the Haggas yard. Of course second strings have won but not so heavily supported with the other runner drifting so markedly.
Onto Thursday and day 1 of the Leger meeting.
A opening to the festival that uniquely features three nursery handicaps and two other races for 2yo’s, on the 8 race card.
Somerville Lodge send out six horses across four races. With the ground on the soft side the 2yo contests are a punters nightmare with nearly all the form on fast ground.
In the 1.15 Gwen John and especially Concert don’t look well handicapped although I think Gwen John can run well I expect one of those at the top of the weights to be too good for her.
No Bet Recommended
The 3.00 is covered by our bet report and the bet on Danielle who can outclass Santorini Star and Chorus who primarily are running for Group 2 black type.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Danielle 4/1 Ante Post -+ 1pt win 7/2 overnight decs NRNB
In the ultra competitive 10 runner handicap at 3.35. First Principle will be among the market leaders racing off 8st 6lb with Sylvestra De Souza booked as Marquand and Fallon cannot do the weight.
However he has to give 2lb away to the Andrew Balding trained Respond with Joe Fanning booked to do 8st 4lb. Respond beat the Haggas trained Mukhatalif easily by 2L over this trip at Haydock. I know that Mukhatalif is rated a 90+ horse and on that basis Respond looks very well treated.
First Principle has not looked the most straight forward horse in his racing so far and I believe he will play second fiddle to the Balding horse on Thursday.
Recommended Bet – Bet 365 14/1 Respond – Big error 0.50pt ew 1,2,3 places
In the finale at 5.15 Mukaajim with first time cheek pieces will attract support, however as in the First Principle race he comes up against an unexposed rival in Explode who potentially could be well in on his handicap debut off a mark of 85.
My reluctance to get involved with the Haggas runners is explained by the fact at the St Leger Meeting over the past eight seasons 48 horse have gone to post with only 6 winning and one of them was a 33/1 unconsidered 2yo on debut.
In the period 2018,2019,2020 they didn’t send out a single winner. The yard is known for targeting horses to certain meetings each season and I think it is safe to say the Doncaster St Leger 3 day meeting is not one of them
By comparison over the same 8 year period the Gosden team at Clarehaven have sent out 15 winners from 59 runners at a strike rate of over 25% double that of Somerville Lodge of the 44 that were beaten 16 finished 2 or 3. Resulting in over 50% finishing 1,2 or 3.
From the Haggas yard of the 42 that were beaten only 12 finished 2 or 3. A strike rate of just 38% for horses finishing 1,2,3. Figures that are far lower than normal for the Haggas yard.
The yard send the once raced 3yo filly Winter Flower to contest a 4 runner Novice Stakes race at Newcastle, for which the Roger Varian filly Majaz rated 85 will be long odds on
No Bet Recommended
Thursday Bets
2pt win Ante Post Danielle 3.00 Doncaster + 1pt win after overnight Decs 7/2 NRMB
0.50 ew Respond 14/1 Bet 365 1,2,3 places
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